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Old 09-02-2005, 11:32 AM   #1 (permalink)
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Location: Southern England
New Orleas Flood predicted in May 2005

This is chilling.

There was an interview on the BBC Radio4 5pm news programme this evening with a journalist called Chris Mooney.

It mentioned an article he'd written for American Prospect in May 2005 called "Thinking Big About Hurricanes" (Link) about what might happen to New Orleans should it be hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. Despite the increasing risk of a catastrophic event, he calls for technology to bolster the city against nature:

Quote:
Currently, pretty much every long-term trend cuts against the safety of New Orleans. Levees are subsiding; coastal wetlands (which can slow storm surges) are continually disappearing; and sea levels are rising.... Most importantly, the Atlantic Ocean appears to have entered an active hurricane cycle, with the potential to fling storms at the Gulf Coast for years to come.

This puts New Orleans on the vanguard among U.S. coastal cities (including New York) that will have to think hard about their growing vulnerabilities in the coming years...

New Orleans already boasts some of the most powerful hurricane defenses in the world, yet the city will have to greatly amplify their strength. That engineering feat will take years ...

[T]he Army Corps of Engineers and others have considered the notion of armoring the I-10 twin span, near the mouth of Lake Pontchartrain, with a miles-long bulwark rising out of the water. If tall and strong enough, the sea wall, dubbed "Operation Block," would knock down any storm surge rising out of the Gulf of Mexico before it hit the lake -- in short, stopping a hurricane with concrete.

And that's just part of the multibillion-dollar program officials with the Corps have envisioned, which would include strengthening huge swaths of the Louisiana gulf coast....

Whatever other natural catastrophes we may be willing to tolerate, the possibility of losing an entire city, and especially the legendary (if also infamous) New Orleans, ought to be out of the question.
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Old 09-02-2005, 11:40 AM   #2 (permalink)
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WOW hes like nostradamus. He predicted the outcome of american idol or something.
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Old 09-02-2005, 11:43 AM   #3 (permalink)
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Actually, even earlier than that: http://www3.nationalgeographic.com/n...geographic.com

October 2004. Almost one year before.

But yeah. it's scary how accurate some of this is.
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Old 09-02-2005, 11:49 AM   #4 (permalink)
Evil Priest: The Devil Made Me Do It!
 
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Location: Southern England
I'm not saying it was spooky - I'm saying it's damed sad that the experts were ignored by US Govt.
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╔═════════════════════════════════════════╗
Overhead, the Albatross hangs motionless upon the air,
And deep beneath the rolling waves,
In labyrinths of Coral Caves,
The Echo of a distant time
Comes willowing across the sand;
And everthing is Green and Submarine

╚═════════════════════════════════════════╝
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Old 09-02-2005, 12:09 PM   #5 (permalink)
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There are reports of New Orleans vulnerability to flooding as far back as 2001...I'm quite certain even early.

Here's one from Scientific American circa 2001...

-bear
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Old 09-02-2005, 12:27 PM   #6 (permalink)
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Everybody who lives on the gulf coast knows how vulnerable they are. The people of New Orleans, and those who have bothered to study its geographic peculiarities, have known for a long time that New Orleans has three problems- the Mississippi river, the Gulf of Mexico/Lake Pontchartrain, and its elevation- whereas, most cities on the coast only have one.
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Old 09-02-2005, 12:27 PM   #7 (permalink)
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You don't need to be an expert to realise that a coastal city which is mostly below the sea level is in high danger of a flood. (look at the netherlands...)

Also, I predict that californian cities are very likely to be hit by an earthquake within the next 20 (or so) years
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Old 09-02-2005, 12:37 PM   #8 (permalink)
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Look further back in time, about 15 -20 years. John McPhee dedicated about 1/3 of his book "The Control of Nature" to New Orleans and it's precarious geography.
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Old 09-02-2005, 12:45 PM   #9 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clavus
Look further back in time, about 15 -20 years. John McPhee dedicated about 1/3 of his book "The Control of Nature" to New Orleans and it's precarious geography.
Right.

Being amazed that something happens where it should be in the scope of time in relation to planet earth... isn't anything to be surprised about. It's just a matter of time.
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Old 09-02-2005, 01:10 PM   #10 (permalink)
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Yeah, this isn't news. People have known for a long time that New Orleans could be flooded and devastated by a strong hurricane. I daresay they knew it when they built the city almost 300 years ago.
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Old 09-02-2005, 01:29 PM   #11 (permalink)
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I remember The Weather Channel had a series back in the '90's about the most vulnerable cities to hurricanes in the US. New Orleans was ranked at the top. It’s been well known for a while that this could happen. Why we were not better prepared to help these poor people?

Watching the CBS evening news last night almost brought tears to my eyes. CNN did a pretty sobering interview with the Mayor of New Orleans this morning that pretty much sums it up.

I guess the photo ops from this afternoon will make people forget how bad this situation has been handled form the beginning.
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Old 09-02-2005, 01:29 PM   #12 (permalink)
Evil Priest: The Devil Made Me Do It!
 
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The point is, Oberon, that recent human influenced goegraphical changed (draining etlands, divertign rivers, removing oil and gas from the substrata) have made things worse, but people haven't used the massive wealth that has been extracted from the region to make the region safe.

And as I said elsewhere, some of the poorest people in the US live in an area with phenomenal wealth in resources.
__________________
╔═════════════════════════════════════════╗
Overhead, the Albatross hangs motionless upon the air,
And deep beneath the rolling waves,
In labyrinths of Coral Caves,
The Echo of a distant time
Comes willowing across the sand;
And everthing is Green and Submarine

╚═════════════════════════════════════════╝
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Old 09-02-2005, 01:41 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel_
I'm not saying it was spooky - I'm saying it's damed sad that the experts were ignored by US Govt.

Indeed! Why didn't they listen??!

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Old 09-02-2005, 01:57 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel_
...but people haven't used the massive wealth that has been extracted from the region to make the region safe.
Hard to argue this.

There are almost 600 oil rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, accounting for 25% of US oil production. 20 have been confirmed missing, adrift, or sunk. Maybe they didn't realize the extent of the damage potential of this partiular hurricane.
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Old 09-02-2005, 02:31 PM   #15 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pacifier
You don't need to be an expert to realise that a coastal city which is mostly below the sea level is in high danger of a flood. (look at the netherlands...)

Also, I predict that californian cities are very likely to be hit by an earthquake within the next 20 (or so) years
What he said.
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Old 09-02-2005, 11:05 PM   #16 (permalink)
Evil Priest: The Devil Made Me Do It!
 
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Location: Southern England
I'm not sayig anyoe could have stopped the weather, or could stop the earthquakes - I just wonder if there would have been more money spent on the defenses if they'd been rich northern white folks instead of poor southern black folks.

I wouldn't be shocked to hear that more money was spent gardening in N.Y. in the last few years than was spent keeping N.O. defended.


Oil is huge business.

Oil companies make vast profits even in bad years, and yet the localities where that oil is pulled from are left to sink into the ground every year INCREASING their flood risk.

Just lstened to an interview with one of the former officers of the US Army Corps of Engineers who was re-allocated by the pentagon three years ago because he argued that more should be spent on defenses at home and less on blowig up afghan wedding parties.

How much did the federal govrnment spend on investigating the shuttle accident?

How much did the federal government spend on tax cuts for the rich?

How much did the federal government spend on keepig it's citizens safe in N.O.?

I don't know the answers to all the questions here, but I know that I'm glad I live in tax and spend Europe, rather than pay for it yourself America right now.
__________________
╔═════════════════════════════════════════╗
Overhead, the Albatross hangs motionless upon the air,
And deep beneath the rolling waves,
In labyrinths of Coral Caves,
The Echo of a distant time
Comes willowing across the sand;
And everthing is Green and Submarine

╚═════════════════════════════════════════╝
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