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I think one important issue is that we can only speculate as to the probability that intelligent consciousness capable of recognizing itself will evolve on a given planet with life. For Earth, the only planet with a rich history of life that we know of, this is a very new development. Given that we don't really understand how biological processes create such consciousness (if in fact consciousness can be explained as a biological phenomenon), I don't see how we can estimate the chances of it spontaneously evolving elsewhere. It may be that the odds are 1 in 10^100, for all we know. The fact that we know that we exist and are conscious doesn't help because we need consciousness to consider this question in the first place.
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