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Old 01-25-2011, 08:25 PM   #3 (permalink)
Martian
Young Crumudgeon
 
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Location: Canada
Small correction -- there are 21 gTLD's, not 21 TLD's altogether. Things like .us, .ca or .uk are ccTLD's (country code TLD's) -- as you might imagine, there's one for each country. Since there are 248 countries, that makes for 269 altogether.

Of course, that doesn't even begin to paint the full picture. Of the gTLD's, a number are restricted; .edu, .mil and .gov are some examples. Then there are others like .tel that just never really caught on. And if that's not enough, several of the ccTLD's have been genericized, meaning that they can be registered by anyone -- .tv, .fm and .co are some examples of those.

In short, I really don't see this as being much of anything at all. I think it's possible we'll see a few vanity TLD's (.facebook or .fb is a remarkably strong possibility, by my reckoning) but I don't see very many companies being willing to manage the infrastructure necessary to run their own TLD. The reality is that the $185 000 to ICANN is barely a drop in the bucket compared to the costs of running the servers necessary and unless you can hit on something with the basic draw of one of the 'big three' or similar, you'll probably never see enough in registration fees to cover the cost.

.tel is interesting as the test case (side note: your second article is about two years out of date). There really were all these terribly optimistic predictions about landrush registrations. Reality: I've seen a grand total of one .tel in use, and I work directly with this stuff to earn my Doritos.

Short version? Whole thing's a non-starter.

You want to know where the real show is going on, read up on the transition to IPv6. We've all been caught with our pants down, and collectively as an industry we have absolutely no excuse for it.

There's going to be some serious tapdancing on that one before year's end.
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