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The prospects for a centrist government are not good. Without Likud, it is difficult to envision a Kadima majority coalition, for such a coalition would have to include right-wing parties Shas or YB (which hate each other enough) along with Meretz and other left/Arab parties. It just doesn't seem likely that the parties will agree to such an arrangement, or that a government so composed would even be effective.
The other possibility is a Kadima-Likud government of national unity, but the right's posturing does not indicate that it takes this possibility seriously. Given that the right knows what it wants right now, why would Netanyahu give up the PM's seat when he can fairly easily secure a right-nationalist majority coalition?
If I am realistic, I think the only real question is to what degree YB's poisonous influence will take the coming Netanyahu government even further to the right. Given that, the only hope I see for peace prospects is that the formation of a far-right Israeli government might open up political space in the United States for the administration to make tough demands on Israel. But do I really think those demands will be answered? It doesn't seem likely...
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