well, what we know from the past 18 months is that if israel does not lift the siege, the rockets are likely to continue and the prisoners will not be released. but these issues seem separate from each other, really. i do not know the extent to which hamas is in a position to exert control over anyone who is not hamas at this point BECAUSE of the siege and the policy box that prompted it---what seems likely is that rockets could be fired from any number of sources that may or may not be hamas--but it is convenient to say that everything which happens is their fault. in other words, i think that the rockets are a function of hamas not being in a position to govern. so it's a circle, i think. of course it's hard to know--but it seems worth thinking about.
the prisoners are different to the extent that they are in hamas control. i can imagine an exchange being part of an agreement that would involve lifting the siege.
i don't think you adequately appreciate what this siege has been, what it has done, and the extent to which it has been counterproductive. in this particular case, i think the onus really is on israel to alter their position. which they're doing, but in an insane direction (i see this as taking all the counterproductive aspects of the previous 18 months and raising it exponentially...)
on a side note---i tried above on this page to outline where i'm coming from politically on this question...i did it to try to change the tone of the thread and open up more space for dialogue. you could maybe do the same--maybe there's room within your position more than there is in expressions based on your position for dialogue. if you're interested. your choice, obviously.
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added later as another post, but merged:
this from today's haaretz.
if this is true, then the bracketing of the siege as a factor in what's happening now cannot be other than disengenuous (in general) and emphasis on hamas as responsible for the breakdown of the truce cannot be true.
Quote:
UN official says Israel responsible for breaking truce with Gaza
By The Associated Press
Tags: Gaza, Israel News, Israel
Palestinians in Gaza believed Israel had called a 48-hour lull in retaliatory attacks with Hamas when Israel Air Force warplanes launched a massive bombardment of militant installations in the Gaza Strip, a UN official said Monday.
Karen Abu Zayd, commissioner of the UN Relief and Works Agency which helps Palestinian refugees, raised the possible violation of an informal truce in a video press conference with UN reporters from her base in Gaza.
Israel's UN Mission referred any comment on the reported lull to Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert's office in Jerusalem. Olmert's office did not answer telephone calls for comment early Tuesday morning.
Abu Zayd said Palestinians in Gaza were surprised when Israeli warplanes sent more than 100 tons of bombs crashing down on key security installations in Hamas-ruled Gaza starting Saturday morning because it was in the middle of the lull.
The offensive began eight days after a six-month truce between Israel and the militants expired. During that time, the Israel Defense Forces said Palestinian militants fired some 300 rockets and mortars at Israeli targets, and 10 times that number over the past year.
Israel had sent mixed signals on Friday regarding its plans for Gaza. Israeli defense officials said politicians had approved a large-scale incursion into the territory. But at the same time, Israel appeared open to international pressure against an invasion, prying open its border with Gaza to allow deliveries of humanitarian aid.
"What we understood here (was) that there was a 48-hour lull to be called, and this was called by the Israelis," Abu Zayd said. "They said they would wait 48 hours. That was on Friday morning, I believe, until Sunday morning, and that they were going to evaluate."
"There was only one rocket that went out on Friday, so it was obvious that Hamas was trying, again, to observe that truce to get this back under control," she said.
"Then, everything got loose on Saturday morning at 11:30 a.m. We were all at work and very much surprised by this," Abu Zayd said.
When the Israeli offensive began, neither Defense Minister Ehud Barak nor
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert made any mention of a lull.
Abu Zayd mentioned the lull when she was asked whether the population of Gaza was aware that this was all commenced by the Hamas government unilaterally ending the cease-fire and firing rockets.
"I don't think they think the truce was violated first by Hamas," she said.
"I think they saw that Hamas had observed the truce quite strictly for almost six months, certainly for four of the six months, and that they got nothing in turn - because there was to be kind of a deal," Abu Zayd said.
"If there were no rockets, the crossings would be opened," she said. "The
crossings were not opened at all."
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UN official says Israel responsible for breaking truce with Gaza - Haaretz - Israel News
needless to say, the comments posted below this article on the haaretz page are divided and quite heated.
i don't have any outside/independent information that would confirm or deny this either way, but it sure seems more logical than any of the stuff that i've read, here or elsewhere, from the israeli side.
once again, back to the debilitating consequences of the bush-rhetoric of terrorism and yet another shockingly bad decision on the part of the bush administration to back themselves and israel into this stupid policy box. because it is that box--the refusal to deal with hamas--that explains all of this.
at the same time---what the hell is hosni mubarak doing?
Quote:
Mubarak: We'll open Gaza crossing only if PA takes control
By News Agencies
Tags: Israel News, Israel, Hamas
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said Tuesday that his government will not fully open its crossing into the Gaza Strip unless Mahmoud Abbas' Palestinian Authority is in control of the border post.
The speech Tuesday from Mubarak came despite criticism of Egypt in the Arab world over its refusal over the past year to open the Rafah crossing, which has helped complete an Israeli blockade of the territory.
Since Israel's offensive in Gaza began Saturday, Egypt has allowed some wounded to cross from Gaza for treatment and some humanitarian supplies to enter the territory.
But Egypt resists dealing with the Islamic militant Hamas because it opposes the militant group's 2007 takeover of the Gaza Strip and insists Abbas is the legitimate Palestinian leader.
Yemenites storm Egyptian consulate to protest Cairo's Gaza policy
Yemeni protesters angered by Cairo's cooperation with Israel in imposing a blockade on Gaza stormed the Egyptian consulate in the southern city of Aden on Tuesday, witnesses said.
The protest comes after about 350 Palestinians were killed and more than 800 were wounded in three days of Israeli air strikes on the enclave, of which Egypt is the only other neighbour.
Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossam Zaki said the incident at the consulate was over and lasted 15 minutes.
One witness said the protesters burned the Egyptian flag and hoisted a Palestinian banner on top of building.
"Some of the protesters were able to enter the consulate and destroyed some property and papers," another witness said, adding that some of the protestors were Egyptian.
The Egyptian government has been under attack for the past three days for helping Israel in the blockade on the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip for the past six months.
The official Yemeni news agency said 20 Arabs, including some Sudanese, Iraqis and Palestinians, were arrested "for attempting to enter the consulate." It did not give details.
The crisis over Gaza is the most serious foreign policy challenge the Egyptian government has faced for years because it is the only Arab country that borders Gaza.
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Mubarak: We'll open Gaza crossing only if PA takes control - Haaretz - Israel News
the piece i linked yesterday--above somewhere---that provides background on the egypt-israel relation relative to the border with gaza is relevant here.
but even so, mubarak's line is a bit of a mystery to me.
he seems to be saying, basically: if you, population of gaza, do not erase the last election, you will be trapped in gaza and will die there.