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tisonlyi · 10-30-2008, 07:39 PM

Over the next decade, maybe less, maybe much less... The US MUST fix it's budget deficit. It either goes into it's social programs, bigtime, or it goes into its military budget.

Military all the way. lack of military power for a state that is not strong in any other manner = end of empire, end of reserve status.

But this crisis might just push this way, way, way faster.

The trends go towards the dollar losing ground against the dollar. things tend to move slowly until enough people get past the ideological insanity that it "it can't happen" and then it happens quickly.

Almost all of the economists that predicted this credit crisis thought it would be moving over 5 to 6 years til it was all over, i think it'll be the same sort of timeframe, but it'll include a change of reserve currency.

The crisis will end the idea that the dollar is invincible, when that goes, it's a short leap to the end of the dollar as reserve currency, no matter what the fundamentals. The debt, public plus private, denominated in dollars, is simply ridiculous - particularly in contrast to the other large currencies.

Maybe, just maybe, it may just switch to the yuan or the yen, but... the euro is the denomination of the world's biggest economy.

It's going to happen. The next few years or up to ten. Nothing more.

The end of the reserve currency status will immediately bankrupt the US govt if it continues on the current path.

Unfortunately, only the wingnut Ron Paul is telling what is _true_ to the country and the world, as a politician, instead of Obama or McCain.

There is no new Roosevelt on offer.

10-30-2008, 07:39 PM	#3 (permalink)
tisonlyi Nothing	Over the next decade, maybe less, maybe much less... The US MUST fix it's budget deficit. It either goes into it's social programs, bigtime, or it goes into its military budget. Military all the way. lack of military power for a state that is not strong in any other manner = end of empire, end of reserve status. But this crisis might just push this way, way, way faster. The trends go towards the dollar losing ground against the dollar. things tend to move slowly until enough people get past the ideological insanity that it "it can't happen" and then it happens quickly. Almost all of the economists that predicted this credit crisis thought it would be moving over 5 to 6 years til it was all over, i think it'll be the same sort of timeframe, but it'll include a change of reserve currency. The crisis will end the idea that the dollar is invincible, when that goes, it's a short leap to the end of the dollar as reserve currency, no matter what the fundamentals. The debt, public plus private, denominated in dollars, is simply ridiculous - particularly in contrast to the other large currencies. Maybe, just maybe, it may just switch to the yuan or the yen, but... the euro is the denomination of the world's biggest economy. It's going to happen. The next few years or up to ten. Nothing more. The end of the reserve currency status will immediately bankrupt the US govt if it continues on the current path. Unfortunately, only the wingnut Ron Paul is telling what is _true_ to the country and the world, as a politician, instead of Obama or McCain. There is no new Roosevelt on offer. __________________ "I do not agree that the dog in a manger has the final right to the manger even though he may have lain there for a very long time. I do not admit that right. I do not admit for instance, that a great wrong has been done to the Red Indians of America or the black people of Australia. I do not admit that a wrong has been done to these people by the fact that a stronger race, a higher-grade race, a more worldly wise race to put it that way, has come in and taken their place." - Winston Churchill, 1937 --{ORLY?}--