Quote:
Originally Posted by balderdash111
Hi Will
We've done this particular dance before, but I'll put this out there for those who didn't see it last time.
I don't think any credible astrobiologist or other scientist believes the Drake equation is actually a mathematical model for the frequency of intelligent life. Rather, it is intended to illustrate a point - that given the very large numbers involved (of stars, of planets, etc), even if the conditions for life are very very improbable (thank you Douglas Adams), you still wind up with a good number of planets with intelligent life.
You can quibble with the details and the variables, but that's not really the point unless you think there are additional variables that make life less likely.
Enjoy.
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Sorry, I missed this response. For several years.
The issue is that we don't have enough information to reasonably guess. We don't know all of the theoretical conditions of life. We don't know if the conditions that created us could create intelligent life anywhere else, or if there exist other, completely unknown conditions that can result in intelligent life. We are just scratching the surface of abiogenesis and evolution on Earth, and we really have nothing—abiogenesis or evolution—of an extraterrestrial nature to start to compare to.
Add to that the
Fermi paradox and we find ourselves really grasping at straws in the dark. There's literally no direct evidence whatsoever of extraterrestrial life. Not a shred. Even the microfossil on the Martian meteor (ALH84001) which gained such notoriety back in 1996 isn't direct evidence.
Imagine that you have lived in a room your whole life, alone. Food and drink are supplied, you can exercise and read about scientific facts, listen to music, etc. You start to wonder if there are any other individuals such as yourself, so you look carefully out your window and see other forms. Some of those forms could be houses and in those houses there could be people. Do you know if there are people? No, not at all. You don't have nearly enough information to make a reasonable guess.
"The universe is really big, therefore there's probably life" is dishonest.