Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Derwood
i don't buy that this is entirely a supply/demand thing. Venezuelans still pay $0.29/gal for their gas. it's equal parts a political thing (ie the Chavez and/or the Middle East hanging the US out to dry on supply) plus a market thing (commodities are the trendy thing to trade these days, but hopefully the bubble will burst soon)
|
It's not exactly the case you've tried to make here.
Here are your
top five exporters (barrels per day, March '08) of petroleum to the United States:
- Canada (2,542)
- Saudi Arabia (1,542)
- Mexico (1,358)
- Nigeria (1,174)
- Venezuela (1,033)
The rest of the top 15 each exports less than 1,000 per day, most of them less than 300.
I can't agree with you that it's equal parts politics and market speculation. That is a bit of a stretch. You should not discount supply and demand, as it is a significant factor. The market speculation factor should be a short-term one, and time will tell just how much of an impact it has. Though many analysts doubt oil will drop below $100 anytime soon, if at all. Some are predicting $200 by 2010. The factor that few have raised here on TFP is that elevated oil prices expand the domestic markets where oil is produced. Look at Alberta.... BOOM! What happens next? Alberta's domestic demand for oil increases to fill the void of the expanding economy. Demand has risen, meaning there will be less to export in the long term. Speculation may have fueled demand in this case, but realize the two are connected, and the latter lasts much longer than the former. Oil prices will remain high, especially if they're right about peak oil.
So...if oil prices continue to rise, the alternatives begin to look better. Biofuels: Are they the answer? I don't know. I'd like to think they are one solution amongst many, but we're going about it the wrong way with corn. We feed much of that low-grade stuff to raise dairy and meat animals. Your rich foods will soon be more expensive. The price spikes will likely outstrip the spikes seen in grains, mainly due to the extended use of oil and grain products to raise and transport the animals. But I don't mind; we should be eating less of that stuff anyway--maybe start following the food pyramid more closely.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by dksuddeth
One has to wonder, is this the market playing itself out or is it a conspiracy to make us even further slaves to the corporate controlled government?
|
Market. I think the corporations would rather you all drive your own cars than take the train. False sense of independence and all that.