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Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
I'm not sure who's been saying we're going to "run out," but the more sensible analysts have been saying we're going to hit peak production, and there are many indicators suggesting it's happening. New oil projects are dwindling, and they're having a tougher time getting to the sweet light crude of existing projects. This, essentially, makes up what we call "peak oil," for the most part. This drives prices up as it becomes more valuable through rising demand in contrast to questionable supply. This is where speculation comes in. But, as I said, all the factors are at play at once. When the price of oil becomes too much to bear--that is to say, it contributes to high inflation for a certain period--then we will see the alternatives have their day. This is because they will be more financially viable, not just because of technology, but because of comparative prices.
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Did you read my first post? I quoted an article written in 2004 that oil production would peak by Thanksgiving, 2005. There are several other articles predicting the same thing, written within a six month window of the one I quoted.
We're three years past and again, predictions are we are going to "peak" within a year. Looks like a case of crying "wolf".
Right now, it is more expensive to produce a gallon of ethanol than a gallon of gas. Since gas now contains 10% ethanol, one can conclude this too is adding to the price at the pump and that 10% is not helping anything at all, including the air quality. To date, ethanol is a negative. It'd take major refinements in the thinking process to make it a positive.
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Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
The U.S. notoriously "dumps" grain into Third World markets. This is why it's so hard for farmers to compete there. If Americans demand the corn for ethanol, there will be less of this dumping and therefore less supply to these countries.
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The US also notoriously pays to NOT grow grains and other foodstuffs to keep the costs and growth under control here. Lift some of those restrictions and pay TO grow and the burden would be, if not lifted entirely, at least lightened.
It is also imperative that, instead of tossing tons of grains grown to third world countries, we endorse and support self-sustaining farming there. The familiar "Give a man a fish, he eats for a day, teach him to fish, he eats all his life" applies. We wouldn't dream of teaching our own kids to call crying they're hungry as adults, then run over with food, yet we do it with the other half of the world. Only by telling them, "Here's your seeds, get to work", will we be able to use our own resources in furthering alternative fuel testing and usage.