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Ace...I will repeat myself in case you missed it:
Your OP was focused on energy policy/regulations and a specific piece of legislation.
If you want to change the focus and expand the premise to include US tax policy, monetary/fiscal policies, trade policies, tangentially related regulations, etc....I might come closer to agreement with your 50% speculation.
But would still lean to thinking that the greatest percentage impact on the price of oil in a global market/economy is beyond US polices/regulations.
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"The perfect is the enemy of the good."
~ Voltaire
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