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I've read up on Peak Oil - on and off - for the last 5 years. Peak Oil is going to happen but no one has the ability to say exactly when that is going to happen.
Current thoughts are that we will be 2 to 5 years into 'Peak Oil' before the world realizes it and then we hit the cliffs edge. Basically, Oil Companies are probably going to throw their reserves into play while quietly trying to find a way out from under the demand. By the time their reserves run out, (and heres where most of the 'IF' stuff falls in) there won't be another viable, produceable energy source to meet the demand. Instead of a steady decline in oil availability, 'Peak Oil' suggests that there will be such a sharp drop in oil that enconomies collapse, many countries will have major financial collapses and, basically, life as we know it will instantly change.
Whether or not 'Peak Oil' is going to happen exactly like that is where your particular nightmare of choice lies. I suspect that many countries will adapt and not have the 'commuting' problems that countries like the US will have. The problem with a global economic system is that if one of the BIG players falls, everyone else is dragged under with them.
That is the part that I believe is the most likely and the most frightening. I also keep a good supply of ammo handy for those 'fun' times.
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