Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - 1992 Redux: Will "it's the economy, stupid", Be The Big Campaign Issue?

jorgelito · 03-12-2007, 11:25 AM

Here you go guys (and Host

). Hopefully this post is more in line with what you prefer.

The economy is fine. It will go up at times and it will go down at times. It will be overvalued at times and be undervalued at times. Some people will lose their jobs, others will gain new jobs. Every now and then there will be a crash and the cycle will repeat. I see no reason to panic.

Deficit is down.

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http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070312/...AiAd1kfAtv24cA

Federal deficit down sharply this period

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer 29 minutes ago

The deficit for the first five months of the budget year is down sharply from a year ago as the growth in government tax collections continues to outpace growth in spending.

The Treasury Department reported that the deficit from October through February totaled $162.2 billion, down 25.5 percent from the same period last year.

That improvement came even though the deficit in February hit $120 billion, up 0.6 percent from last February's deficit of $119.2 billion.

The government had larger-than-expected surpluses in December and January.

For the budget year that began Oct. 1, revenues are up by 9.3 percent to a record $954.4 billion.

Spending for the period also set a record at $1.117 trillion, but that 2.3 percent rise was slower than the growth in revenues, resulting in a lower deficit.

The Bush administration is forecasting that the deficit for this year will total $244 billion, a slight improvement from the $248.2 billion actual deficit for the 20006.

However, the Congressional Budget Office is more optimistic, forecasting that the deficit for the current budget year should decline to $214 billion. That forecast assumes that Congress will approve President Bush's supplemental spending request for the war in Iraq.

The $248.2 billion deficit for 2006 was the smallest deficit in four years and down significantly from the all-time high, in dollar terms, of $413 billion in 2004.

The stock market has "corrected" itself.

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Stocks Turn Positive After Merger News
Monday March 12, 2:50 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
Stocks Rise As Investors Try to Look Past Subprime Lender Woes

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks climbed Monday as investors tried to look past widening cracks in the subprime lending sector and looked to another parade of acquisition deals as a bullish sign for stocks.

A warning from New Century Financial Corp. early Monday about its financial woes initially overshadowed the merger news with concerns that a blowup among companies making loans to consumers with poor credit will spill over into other industries.

Amid the din over subprime lenders, buyout news offered some support for stocks. Word that private-equity company Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. struck a deal to acquire Dollar General Corp. pleased investors, as did news that Schering-Plough Inc. would acquire the Organon BioSciences BV pharmaceuticals business of Akzo Nobel NV, the Dutch maker of chemicals and coatings, for $14.5 billion.

Investors also appeared pleased by a report that the federal deficit for the first five months of the fiscal year is down 25.5 percent from a year earlier.

In midafternoon trading, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 52.40, or 0.43 percent, to 12,328.72.

Broader stock indicators also rose. The Standard & Poor's 500 index advanced 4.44, or 0.32 percent, to 1,407.29, and the Nasdaq composite index rose 13.28, or 0.56 percent, to 2,400.83.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/12/mark...ion=2007031214
CNNmoney

Quote:

Techs manage gains
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
March 12 2007: 2:16 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Technology shares rose Monday afternoon, livening up an otherwise mixed market as investors weighed a spate of merger and acquisition news with the latest problems for the subprime mortgage lenders.

The Dow Jones industrial average (up 22.52 to 12,298.84, Charts) added a few points with roughly 2 hours left in the session, while the broader S&P 500 (up 0.71 to 1,403.56, Charts) index hovered near unchanged. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (up 6.89 to 2,394.44, Charts) composite gained 0.3 percent.

Stocks rose last week, as investors recovered a bit from the previous week's selloff. But the new week started on a tentative note, as investors weighed competing influences at the start of a busy week for economic news. Reports due later in the week include retail sales, producer and consumer prices and manufacturing.

"Basically, we're in a holding pattern right now," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners. "The impact of what happened a few weeks ago is behind us, and the market is trying to consolidate."

Cardillo said that stocks were also a little choppy because of the worries about subprime and because Friday is a quadruple witching day. The quarterly event in which stock futures and options and stock index futures and options all expire simultaneously can cause gyrations in the underlying issues.

Select technology shares gained, with Apple (up $1.58 to $89.55, Charts), Oracle (up $0.35 to $16.98, Charts), Intel (up $0.35 to $19.45, Charts) and Yahoo! (up $0.85 to $29.97, Charts) all managing gains.

Monday brought a number of merger announcements, but the news was countered by new worries about subprime mortgage lenders.

New Century Financial (Charts) said its lenders have cut off its financing, in the latest blow to the mortgage lender to people with less than top credit. The New York Stock Exchange delayed opening trading for the stock and later announced that it was considering suspending trading.

In addition, Countrywide Financial (down $1.21 to $34.89, Charts) said it expects some short-term earnings volatility due to events in the subprime mortgage lending market. Shares slumped about 3 percent.

Other financial companies exposed to subprime mortgage lending slumped as well. Accredited Home Lending (down $3.81 to $11.97, Charts) lost 21 percent, Fremont General (down $1.35 to $6.68, Charts) lost 13 percent and Novastar Financial (down $0.68 to $4.56, Charts) lost 12 percent.

Among the deals announced: Schering Plough (down $0.14 to $23.71, Charts) is buying Akzo Nobel's drug unit for $14.4 billion in cash.

Dollar General (up $4.38 to $21.16, Charts) has agreed to be taken private by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. in a $7.3 billion cash and debt deal.

UnitedHealth Group (down $0.04 to $52.96, Charts) said it was buying Sierra Health Services for $2.6 billion in cash.

In addition, Ford Motor (up $0.02 to $7.95, Charts) said it was selling its luxury Aston Martin line for $925 million.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers beat decliners eight to seven on volume of 900 million shares. On the Nasdaq, winners barely topped losers as 1 billion shares traded hands.

U.S. light crude oil for April delivery fell 90 cents to $59.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for April delivery fell $1.50 to $650.50 an ounce.

Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 4.55 percent from 4.58 percent late Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Find this article at:
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/12/mark...ion=2007031214

Job growth is great

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/08/news...ion=2007030809

Quote:

Jobless claims below expectations
328,000 filed first-time jobless claims, slightly better than 330,000 expected.
March 8 2007: 9:04 AM EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- The number of U.S. workers claiming first-time jobless benefits fell 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 328,000 last week, slightly lower than Wall Street expectations, a government report showed.

But the four-week moving average for initial claims, a better look at the underlying trend, rose to 339,000, which is the highest since the week of Oct. 29, 2005, when it was also 339,000.

There were no special factors, such as weather, affecting the data last week, the U.S. Labor Department said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted initial claims would drop to 330,000 in the week ended March 3, from the prior week's unrevised 338,000.

The number of workers filing for continuing claims fell 98,000 in the week ended Feb. 24 to 2.55 million, following a 118,000 jump the prior week.

Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted this number would decline to 2.59 million.

The insured unemployment rate was 1.9 percent in the week ended Feb. 24, down from 2.0 percent the prior week.

Quote:

Found! 1 million jobs
Government revisions to payrolls are likely to show job growth has been much stronger than first thought.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
February 5 2007: 2:49 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The question of why the economy hasn't added more jobs since the 2001 recession ended may get this answer Friday morning: It probably did.

The government's January employment report is due before U.S. financial markets open Friday, and economists are forecasting 150,000 new jobs were created last month, down a bit from 167,000 in December. The unemployment rate is pegged to hold steady at 4.5 percent.

But the numbers will also include the Labor Department's so-called benchmark revisions to job numbers for April 2005 through March 2006. While it's gotten very little attention, the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimated last October that the revisions will add about 810,000 jobs to its count of U.S. payrolls for that 12-month period.

In addition, the BLS will make changes to its estimates for April 2006 through December 2006, and some economists say several hundred thousand additional jobs may be counted for that period, meaning the overall job gain could top 1 million. Wachovia senior economist Mark Vitner estimates a total net gain of 1.2 million from all the revisions.

Changes of that magnitude would obviously dwarf the January numbers, which will nevertheless get most of the attention on Wall Street.

The benchmark revision is the biggest going back to the 1970s, and some economists say it shows not only that the economy is doing much better than previously believed, but that the way the Labor Department calculates those on the job needs significant revisions.

If the revision for the 12 -months ending in March 2006 does produce the now expected upward revision of 810,000, that will mean that job growth in the period was about 40 percent stronger than the government's previous estimates.

"It looks as if the monthly numbers grossly undercounted the true number of jobs created," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director of the Economic Outlook Group, a Princeton, N.J. research firm.

It's not that the benchmark always revises the number of workers higher. In fact in four of the previous five revisions, the benchmark revision actually lowered the previous payroll count.

The benchmark revision is made using much harder information than used to compile the monthly report, which is based upon a survey of employers across the nation. The BLS economists will now be able to look at things such as unemployment taxes paid by employers for the April 2005 through March 2006 period.

That includes the period after Hurricane Katrina, when government number crunchers had trouble contacting employers in the Gulf Coast region. It tried to make allowances for those difficulties, but part of the large revision could be due to the peculiar problems associated with those events.

There have been other estimates that showed much stronger job growth than the BLS employer survey. A survey of households, also conducted by the BLS and used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a 3.1 million gain in jobs for the 12 months ending in March 2006, compared to the 2 million job gain recorded in the department's payroll survey of employers.

Economists widely consider the payroll survey to be significantly more accurate of the two readings.

"The BLS says that the payroll estimate has a margin of error of 150,000 jobs, while the household survey is plus or minus 300,000 jobs," he said. "So when you see a gain of 150,000 in the payroll number, it could be zero, or 300,000. It's tough to draw any conclusions about the state of the economy from that."

Vitner said that part of the problem is that the survey is very accurate when compared to the overall number of jobs it's counting, which was 136.2 million in December. But all the attention is given to the much smaller net change in jobs.

Both agree that the BLS should be given more resources to refine and improve the accuracy of the payroll estimates.

"I know virtually all the agencies in Labor and Commerce have been pleading for more money. I can't quantify what they need," said Baumohl. "But for business managers it's problematic to make decisions based on their best guess on what's going on in the economy."

Plenty of jobs for everyone if you're willing to work for it.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/04/news...ion=2007010416

Quote:

Skilled worker shortage hurts U.S.
Employers would be hiring more if they could just find the skilled workers they need.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
January 5 2007: 2:56 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The biggest problem with job growth right now isn't too few new jobs. It's too few skilled workers.

The Labor Department's December employment report Friday showed stronger than expected job and wage growth, with a net gain of 167,000 jobs in the month, and average hourly wages up 4.2 percent from a year ago. But even in this report, the pace of job gains was showing signs of slowing down.

The fourth quarter gain was below the third quarter and 2006 saw 143,000 fewer jobs added to payrolls than in 2005, or almost a month's worth of hiring. And that's a comparison to a year in which hurricanes Katrina and Rita took a bite out of jobs.

In addition, one survey earlier in the week from employment service ADP released Wednesday showed U.S. private sector employment shrank in December, the first decline in 3-1/2 years.

But many economists and labor market experts say that job growth and the economy overall would be significantly stronger if employers could find the skilled workers they really need.

"I'm hearing across the board, across industries, companies indicating they can't exploit market opportunity because they can't find people with the right skills," said Jeff Summer, an executive at Deloitte Consulting who leads the firm's management practice. He said that there's virtually no long-term unemployment for skilled workers.

"It's down to the nub already," he said. "Supply and demand is completely out of whack."

Some experts say part of the blame for the slowdown in the economy in last year's second half can be laid on labor constraints - companies couldn't expand as fast as they wanted due to a lack of workers with the right skills.

Anthony Chan, chief economist for JPMorgan Private Client Services, said employers are constantly citing the inability to find the workers they need as one of their top problems, if not their biggest worry.

Businesses "feel there's real [unmet] demand out there," he said, adding that "economic growth would be faster" if there wasn't this tight supply of workers.

The unemployment rate in December stayed at 4.5 percent. But the rate for college-educated workers was just 1.9 percent in December, near the rate for that group in 1998 and 1999, when the economy was white-hot. The lowest rate for college grads on record was 1.5 percent in three months during 2000.

Mark Vitner, chief economist for Wachovia, said another sign of the tight labor market is the growing number of job openings being reported by the Labor Department in a separate report, even as hiring posts modest gains.

The most recent report shows 4.2 million job openings in October, up 8.8 percent from a year earlier, while hirings rose just 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting, retiring, getting fired or laid-off grew only 0.6 percent.

"With this level of unemployment, the only way they can find the workers they need is to hire them away from someone else, hire them from someplace else, or hire someone without the necessary skills," said Vitner. "All these things cut into productivity growth."

The latest tally of announced job cuts by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed a 22 percent drop from 2005 to the lowest in six years, even as the auto industry slashed thousands of hourly workers, mostly due to the problems at General Motors (Charts) and Ford Motor (Charts).

Outside the auto industry, most employers are reluctant to cut staff due to the tight supply of workers, said John Challenger, the firm's CEO. "Companies are holding onto their people. They're focusing on retention programs. Even if they're in a little slower period, they worry about being able to find the people they need if they see the business pickup."

Still, even with the employment numbers showing a tight supply, some of those college-educated job seekers say they're not seeing the supply-demand equation tip in their favor yet.

Steven Koch said he spent 25 years at IBM (Charts), the last five as a procurement engineer, in charge of buying parts to go into computers. But after Chinese computer company Lenovo bought the IBM personal computer division, his job was relocated to North Carolina from New York and he decided not to follow. He's been without a job since May, despite his masters in computer science.

"I've applied to about 150 companies within 70 miles of where we live. The opportunities are not there," said Koch. "There were about six of us from Lenovo who decided not to go to North Carolina. Not one of us has found a job in the field with a comparable salary. One decided to sell cars."

Challenger said despite the tight market, his figures show job search times are about the same as they were a couple of years ago, when the number of unemployed college-educated job seekers was almost 50 percent higher than it is today.

Part of that may be because of increased competition from job applicants who already have a job. A recent survey by the Society for Human Resource Management found three-quarters of those with jobs said they were looking for a job. But Challenger said employers are being very cautious about adding staff in the current tight market, much more cautious than in the late 1990s.

"Companies are more measured. They're looking closely at who they hire," he said.

Koch said that was his experience as well. He said several times he's gone on job interviews and been told he was a strong candidate, only to later be told the company decided not to fill the position.

"One company said, 'Even though you're the top candidate, you're not exactly what they were looking for'," he said. He suspects that what many companies are looking for is younger skilled workers with lower salary demands.

But Challenger said the inability to hire, either due to reluctance or a tight labor market, is one factor constraining economic growth.

"When the economy hits some natural barriers, it slows it down, and one of those barriers is when the pool of workers begins to dry up," he said. "The lifeblood of the economy today is skilled workers."

And most experts agreed the shortage of skilled workers is likely to persist longer than it did in the late 1990s. That earlier tightness was fed by dot.com companies burning through investors' cash to hire people. The latest round of hiring is being driven by stronger corporate balance sheets, and as more retiring Baby Boomers start leaving the work force.

Deloitte's Summer said that the current tightness will be a problem for business at least into the next decade, when demographic trends should start to help.

"We start to see some relief in 2012, but we'll probably be dealing with this through 2015, even 2020," he said. "Companies that are looking at this are saying, 'We have to re-invent what we're doing here.' Just paying people more won't be the answer. They really need to be treating the talent market as a customer market more than they ever have before."

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/Careers/0...nds/index.html

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CNN.com

Job trends for the new year
By Matt Ferguson
CEO, CareerBuilder.com

Is finding a new job on your list of New Year's resolutions? The market may be in your favor.

Recent reports from the U.S. Labor Department indicate that while the expansion of the U.S. economy is slowing, it is doing so at a reasonable pace, and inflation has steadied.

A moderated, yet stable, job market is expected to carry over into 2007 with gains that will remain strong enough to keep the unemployment rate in check.

University of Michigan economists predict the United States will create 1.5 million jobs in the next 12 months.

According to CareerBuilder.com's annual job forecast, 40 percent of hiring managers and human resource professionals operating in the private sectorexternal link report they will increase their number of full-time, permanent employees in 2007, compared to 2006. Eight percent expect to decrease headcount while 40 percent expect no change. Twelve percent are unsure.

Employers are expected to become more competitive in their recruitment and retention efforts in the New Year as the pool of skilled labor shrinks and productivity growth plateaus. Forty percent of employers report they currently have job openings for which they can't find qualified candidates.

This bodes well for workers who are likely to benefit from more generous job offers, more promotions, more flexible work cultures and other major trends identified for 2007:
No. 1: Bigger Paychecks

To motivate top performers to join or stay with their organizations, employers plan to offer better compensation packages.

Eighty-one percent of employers report their companies will increase salaries for existing employees. Sixty-five percent will raise compensation levels by 3 percent or more while nearly one-in-five will raise compensation levels by 5 percent or more.

Nearly half of employers (49 percent) expect to increase salaries on initial offers to new employees. Thirty-five percent will raise compensation levels by 3 percent or more while 17 percent will raise compensation levels by 5 percent or more.
No. 2: Diversity Recruitment -- Hispanics Workers in Demand

Understanding the positive influence workforce diversityexternal link has on overall business performance, employers remain committed to expanding the demographics of their staffs.

With the Hispanic population accounting for half of U.S. population growth since 2000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, and buying power growing 8 percent annually, one-in-ten employers report they will be targeting Hispanic job candidates most aggressively of all diverse segments.

Nine percent plan to step up diversity recruiting for African American job candidates while 8 percent will target female job candidates. Half of employers recruiting bilingualexternal link employees say English/Spanish-speaking candidates are most in demand in their organizations.
No. 3: More Flexible Work Arrangements

Work/life balance is a major buzzword among U.S. employers as employees struggle to balance heavy workloads and long hours with personal commitments.

Nineteen percent of employers say they are very or extremely willing to provide more flexible work arrangements for employees such as job sharing and alternate schedules. Thirty-one percent are fairly willing.
No. 4: Rehiring Retirees

Employers continue to express concern over the loss of intellectual capital as Baby Boomers retire and smaller generations of replacement workers fall short of labor quotas.

One-in-five employers plan to rehire retirees from other companies or provide incentives for workers approaching retirement age to stay on with the company longer.
No. 5: More Promotions

With the perceived lack of upper mobility within an organization being a major driver for employee turnover, employers are carving out clearer career paths.

Thirty-five percent of employers plan to provide more promotions and career advancement opportunities to their existing staff in the New Year.
No. 6: Better Training

In light of the shortage of skilled workers within their own industries, the vast majority of employers -- 86 percent -- report they are willing to recruit workers who don't have experience in their particular industry or field, but have transferable skills.

Seventy-eight percent report they are willing to recruit workers who don't have experience in their particular industry or field and provide training/certifications needed.
No. 7: Hiring Overseas

Companies continue to drive growth by entering or strengthening their presence in global markets. Thirteen percent of employers report they will expand operations and hire employees in other countries in 2007. Nine percent are considering it.

With China'sexternal link economy expanding at 10 percent annually and India'sexternal link at 8 percent, these two countries are particularly attractive to U.S. companies. Twenty-three percent of employers recruiting overseas report they will hire the most workers in China and 22 percent will hire the most in India.

Survey Methodology

This survey was conducted online by Harris Interactive on behalf of CareerBuilder.com among 2,627 hiring managers and human resource professionals (employed full-time; not self employed; with at least significant involvement in hiring decisions), ages 18 and over within the United States between November 17 and December 11, 2006.

Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

With a pure probability sample of 2,627, one could say with a ninety-five percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of 2 percentage points. Sampling error for data from sub-samples is higher and varies. However that does not take other sources of error into account.

This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

Matt Ferguson is CEO of CareerBuilder.com. He is an expert in recruitment trends and tactics, job seeker behavior and workplace issues.

I'm sorry if my post is too short but I ran out of time.