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Maybe, mixedmedia. Or maybe not. People said the same thing in '92, when Perot surfaced. And he ended up getting less than 20% of the vote.
I also think you're underestimating the flexibility of the two parties. Compare the Democratic Party of today to the populist/segregationist-laden monstrosity it was 40 years ago. Or the Republican Party of today to the elite-industrialist-driven monstrosity it was 40 years ago.
If you look at who the likely 2008 contenders are, the Dems are not fire-breathing lefties and the Repubs aren't born-again types. Heck, Rudy Giuliani is a twice-divorced guy who carried on with his girlfriend in public while still married, and when his wife tossed him out, moved in with a gay couple - and he is pro-choice and pro-gun control. Yet he consistently tops GOP polls. And I suspect the Democrats will want someone with real national security credentials (rather than a guy like Kerry, whose only national security credential was that he was in the Navy) - and I think HRC is actually pretty solid on national security, having served on the Armed Services Committee in the Senate.
Big tents are flexible. That's why we have had two "big tent" parties for a while, and are likely to continue to have them for another while.
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