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Originally Posted by ratbastid
I'm not so sure about that. There's evidence of bubble-pricing in real estate in most metropolitan areas these days. One sign of that is the 70% appreciation of this property over 23 months! I mean, that's great, but... c'mon. That can't keep up indefinitely.
Once the bubble passes, the market won't bear prices like that anymore. Now might be a good time to get your money out of real estate and into something more guaranteed to keep its value.
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The "bubble" means price growth. If the bursting of the bubble means that prices actually go down, then we're all in a shitload of trouble. If the bubble bursts, then price growth should decelerate, not start to decline. I agree that 70% over 23 months is an insane growth rate, but unless the housing market seriously crashes (i.e. people start abandoning an area like Detroit in the late 60's/early 70's) there shouldn't be a decline. Growth of 8% annually would be reasonable and easily realized even in a non-bubble market.
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Originally Posted by intecel
Actually, the house 2 doors down from me is the same floorplan and lot size and they sold 5 months ago at $246k.
The prices around here are skyrocketing, and there are really no homes under 200k for sale except for old, rundown homes. Last time I checked, there were 2 decent homes around 200k for sale but they already had a sale pending.
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As tempting as it is to fall into this trap, I'd be cautious about it in the extreme. Given the growth curve that you're on, the sale down the street tells me that your home is most likely not the best maintained over the long run on the block. When you sell real estate, you can't count on the demographics holding true on every transaction. If you're willing to wait for the right buyer, you can get your ask price, but if I were a buyer in your real estate market and I saw your house for sale and did my research, I would problably offer close to your ask, have the place inspected by someone I trust and then use the results to drive you down. That's working from the assumption that I would be thinking of it as an investment and not listening to my wife about how in love she is with the house. It would be a gamble on my part, but given what you've posted (which I could pretty easily track down with or without the help of my realtor), it's a fairly safe bet that there's at least a couple of systems that need updating or aren't up to code.
None of this is to say that you can't go out and find someone to pay $250k+ tomorrow for your house. If it's a motivated buyer and you create a sense of urgency by having another interested buyer to bid against, you could exceed your expectations. You just need to be wary of counting on demographics since there are folks that can turn them against you just as easily.
Regardless, congratulations on the savvy real estate move! Be careful about protecting that investment, though.