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KMA,
re: original post.
I don't think that Iran would attack first as a country, as they know what the consequences would be and I dont think they are suicidal.
I DO however see them helping terrorism achieve the next level: nuclear terrorism.
MAD worked with the Soviets because we had definable targets. As more and more countries join the nuclear club, it becomes more and more difficult to know whom to retaliate against in the event of a nuclear bomb going off in Washington or New York.
Do we hit North Korea? China? Iran? Pakistan?
I know it is possible to trace the origin of the fissionable material in the fallout, but too many sources for it are coming online for my liking.
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"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience." – C. S. Lewis
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