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*nod*, that is the annual success rate.
If the drugs where taken properly, and there is nothing 'unusual' that prevented them from working, with a 99.5% chance of success, over 9 years, the chance of failing 3 times is...
9C3 * 200^-3 * .995^6
=
9*8*7/6 * 200^-3 * .995^6
roughly one in 100,000.
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Last edited by JHVH : 10-29-4004 BC at 09:00 PM. Reason: Time for a rest.
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