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Bush by 5. Last time Bush underperformed the polls be a few points (drunk driving arrest was probably to blame). This time he will out perform the polls. Two reasons: 1) The Kerry vote is based on Bush-haters--people may try to say they do, but no one really likes Kerry--and that doesn't drive all of the base (esp. african-americans) to turn out. 2) There are a lot of people who will vote for Bush on nothing other than security grounds, but are unwilling to admit it to their friends, co-workers, or pollsters.
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