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It really depends on so much...
As stated already, they could lose Kobe, Shaq, and Payton. Phil Jackson is likely gone, and if they lose those four, they could be in a lot of trouble; especially being in the Western Conference.
However, they are the Lakers and they certainly have the ability to replace lost players. While I can see a scenario where they hit a doldrums and have to go through a rebuilding stage, I think they will generally continue to succeed, and certainly make the playoffs next year.
I don't like the Lakers at all, but they are very exciting to watch and they put a good team on the floor. Minnesota, San Antonio, Houston, and a few others are going to make it very tough for the Lakers to go to the Finals again, but I think they will get to playoffs, and likely win a round or two while there.
Regarding Shaq.. Unlike Garnett, he isn't going to take a pay cut if they vow to build a team around him, so I expect him to be returning with the Lakers, if only because there can't be many teams out there that can afford his 2-year $60 some million salary. Regardless, the Lakers will put a team on the floor, and history has shown it will be a pretty good one, even if they do lose a superstar or two along the way.
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"Yes, I rather like this God fellow. He's very theatrical, you know, a pestilence here, a plague there. Omnipotence. Gotta get me some of that." -Stewie
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