If there is going to be a scapegoat, and I am not sure that the Administration is willing to do that, it most likely will be Ashcroft. As has been said, he is a lightning rod and his political career is over once he is done being AG. Rice has a very nice future ahead of her if she so chooses, and the RNC would like to keep it that way. Highly-intelligent, well-spoken, politically savvy, female, African-American Repbulicans aren;t exactly a dime a dozen. Religious, conservative, white, male, lawyer, Republicans in the last few years of thier political life are a dime a dozen.
However, don't rule out Mr. Tennant or Mr.Mueller as sacraficial lamb.
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