it's a metaphor used to describe something when it's a certainty, i'm not sure of the exact origins, but it would probably be something at work where if you got it right, you had to be bought donuts, or something along those lines.
and dude, don't worry, Jr.'s a fickle bastard, it happens to the best of us.
my tip: imagine the situation in your head, and try and get jr. to get himself doing what he should be, over and over again, then when it comes to the real thing, it should be a lot easier, as everyone knows what they should be doing.
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