2016 NFL Season thread

Today is the first day of free agent signings, so I figured it was a good time for a new thread.


I'm wondering how our @Chris Noyb feels about his Texans' new QB?

 

I'll start by saying that I'm not yet sold on Osweiller myself. I think he COULD be an above average QB, but I don't think he's done enough to prove it is more than a coin flip. His stats and someone like Hoyer's stats aren't terribly far apart, though you could argue that Osweiller's physical measurables are better.


But if you want to understand the money it took to sign him, let me first ask you this question: Among the current NFL QBs, where would you rank Osweiller's ability/potential for next year versus the guys who played this last year? Think about some of the QBs that got playing time when you consider that question. Guys like Manziel, Foles, Gabbert, Keenum, Bortles, Fitzpatrick.........where is Osweiller on that list?

Got your initial thought?

Don't change it on me now.

Was it somewhere in the 20s maybe?

That's kind of where I had him. I'd rather have him than the bottom 6-8 guys. But I wouldn't have him in the top half. Probably not even top 20.

Guess where his pay for next year is?

21st.

The contract numbers are all bogus, because the NFL contracts are not guaranteed. So even though the headline yesterday was for $72M, the guaranteed number is "only" $37M. So his number against the salary cap next year is $12M. Among QBs, that is 21st in the league. (Link = 2016 Quarterback Contracts and Salaries | Over The Cap )

So while I'd agree with anyone who says he's not a proven franchise QB, I'd argue that he got what the market will bear for someone of his skill. If the Texans hadn't paid it, another team or two would've been close.

As far as why he'd leave Denver? Well, the contract Denver offered was reportedly a few million dollars per year less than the Texans were offering. Considering the length of NFL careers, and the possibility he could be out of the league in a year or two for injury or performance reasons, I don't begrudge him taking more money. I also think the way Denver handled his benching in Week 17 was a factor. He came out of the locker room at halftime thinking he was going back in the game, and as he was reaching for his helmet Peyton jogged onto the field. Apparently they forgot to tell Brock he'd been benched. That's bad form, and after him sitting patiently behind Peyton and being a good teammate for the last few years, I think he expected (and deserved) a little more respect.

The Texans are shaping up to be a team that is mimicking what Denver had success with too. Good defense which could be great this year if Watt is healthy. Picked up some help for the running game. Weak division if Indy doesn't bounce back fast. Brock may not have to be a top ten QB for them to make some noise this year.

Also, I'm kind of rooting for him, partially based on the TMZ video released a few days ago. He was in a situation where a lot of athletes would've ended up in a fight and/or arrested and he kept his cool, removing himself and those with him from a sticky situation.

Brock Osweiler -- Blindsided at Pizza Shop ... Refuses to Fight Back (VIDEO) | TMZ.com

 

Yup, that's pretty much how I see it. With a young and talented defense and an improved running game, I think this was the best move they had. It's not like Aaron Rodgers was available.

 

That's part of why Brock hit it so big. Top QBs simply never get to the point of being free agents. Their teams ALWAYS throw truckloads of money at them to stay put before their contract expires.


Think about it. When was the last time a top ten QB, let alone a top 3-5 QB, became a free agent when healthy? It seriously just doesn't happen.


Manning became a free agent after four neck surgeries and losing an entire season to injury. He could barely grip a football when the Broncos signed him. So he was a big risk.

I honestly can't think of any top 5-10 QB that became a free agent when healthy in the last 10 years? Can you think of anyone I'm missing?

 

Brees left SD in 2006, he had a bum shoulder (Miami's doctors actually failed him on their physical and Miami refused to sign him) and wasn't elite yet. He signed with the Saints to a 6yr deal (only first year was guaranteed, second year was an option). Obviously he played well and the team did well. Before his final contract year he signed a new five year deal, which was renegotiated again before last season. So he's currently signed through next season. So every time he's been a free agent since 2006 (and he wasn't considered healthy or elite at that time) he's extended the deal at least one year before it was over. The team wins because they keep him. He wins because each renegotiation guaranteed him a couple more years even if he was injured. A perfect example of what we've been talking about, once a good QB gets to be a great QB, he and the team always seem to work out the new deal before the current one is over, preventing him from ever hitting free agency.

Here is a good breakdown of where Russell's contract stands if you are interested: Breaking down Russell Wilson's new contract | The MMQB with Peter King





Now, I have some devastating news for you Chris. You are going to need to sit down for this.

Are you seated?

Take a deep breath. Have a tissue handy............


Johnny Manziel waived by Cleveland Browns after tumultuous two years

Reportedly the Browns have been shopping him around to see if anyone would even trade a late round pick for him, and no one would offer a thing. So they cut him.

 

He's a free agent with multiple teams (at least the Broncos and Jets) after him. I'd be playing them off each other for more money too.

 

Somebody will take a chance on him.


Steelers' Martavis Bryant appealing 1-year suspension: 5 things to know - CBSSports.com

 

Here's an answer to your question @redux .



Ryan Fitzpatrick's Free Agency is Getting Messy