So is this our October surprise? Is he or isn't he? Does it matter?
 

Reading this I thought, well maybe we have him and it's the Oct. Surprise. Or maybe he is dead and his body is the Oct. surprise.

But then I realized something, if he is dead, if he is caught is it going to even matter? Al-Quida I'm sure has bank accounts like a corporation and the next in charge will have access to the money.

If he is dead would it not be better to just leave his body as missing and therefore he cannot be made a martyr of? I mean if noone knows where he is they do not know if he is dead or is just in hiding, so by questioning it leaves open the "he's a chicken" to the radicals and therefore makes it harder to recruit. If he's dead and we show the body, then he becomes a martyr and his followers can say, "see he believed in the cause so much he died for it, so how can you not?"

I think way too damn much.

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Pakistan minister thinks bin Laden is dead

Sat Sep 11, 1:56 AM ET


KARACHI (AFP) - Pakistan's information minister said on the eve of the third anniversary of the September 11 terror attacks, that Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) was probably dead.


AFP/HO Photo



Information Minister Sheikh Rashid had no evidence to back up his theory but pointed out that it had been some months since bin Laden had released any statements.


"It is purely my political guess that Osama bin Laden may not be in the world," Rashid told reporters in this southern port city on Friday.


"For a long time we have not heard or seen any statements from the Al-Qaeda leader," he added.


The last audio-taped message attributed to bin Laden was released in May.


Last week Pakistan dismissed a US claim that bin Laden's capture was in sight as pre-election posturing.


Bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, who appeared in a video-taped message this week, are widely believed to hiding in the mountainous region between Pakistan and Afghanistan
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LINK: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...us_attacks&e=4

While I think he has been dead (or very disfigured) for quite a while, I think this is just more rambling by another official giving his .02 rupee's.

I doubt very highly this will be picked up by anyone.

I also doubt highly that Bush would wait to announce the capture/death of Bin Ladin until October, but I know anyone who wants Bush out really fears it. What will be amusing is if it does happen innocently.

I said it before and I will say it again. US has Bin Laden already and thats why nobody has heard anything from him.....dont worry, he will show up captured in about a month.

This is Tilted Politics, not Tilted Paranoia. Did you click the wrong forum?

It's not paranoia. It's pretty much fact if you sit and think about it logically.

I dont think there is anything paronoid about it....it is very much a possiblity. Its a tight race and Bush would be more than willing to use Bin Laden to his advantage.

i agree entirely. if he is alive he´s in US custody. only problem with this theory is dick and george would be doing some heavy namedropping about now to get everyone nice and worked up for the spectacular capture. but they seem to be hoping everyone forgot about their ex buddy. nah, he´s dead. they just can´t find the corpse.

I dont think they need to get the public worked up. Bin Laden is the most hated man in the world......well, next to Bush anyway, so I think the public would be mighty ecstatic whether worked up or not. I just hope I am wrong though, the last thing we need is for this nut job to get re-elected.

You know, I don't want to say that, in effect, I hope it takes us longer to catch him, but I almost hope we DON'T catch him before the elections to show how rediculous the assertion that we already have him is.

I loved the X-Files, but what it's done to political thinking in America is a downright travesty.

Please do elaborate....I really do fail to see why this is so illogical.

It seems to me that anyone making unfounded claims about bin Laden or any other figure without a shred of evidence to back it up is saying one of two things. It seems to me that the first one is the most logical, due ot the timing, although the insubstantiality of the statement gives off a whiff of the second.

1: "We're still doing what we can to help you out. Don't think that because we've been quiet that we've abandoned you."

2: "Heeeeey, look at meeeeeee! I'm on TV!!! I said 'bin Laden' so now you're going to publish this somewhere!" [goes back to doing whatever it is that this particular person does]

in my opinion, politically, its too big a gamble.

if they were caught out, it would put the Republician Party out of office for 20 years.. there is no way I believe anyone could take such a risk.

What I would accuse Bush of, is demonising Bin Laden to such a degree that he has made him a far more powerful figure than he should be. Bin Laden is not a master terrorist, he is not a criminal master mind, he is a pathetic and intolerant hate monger and bigot.

Bin Laden is seem by many as a great and terrible figure, taking on and shaking America to its foundations - in reality is was a cowardly terrorist attack, that set back the cause of Islam 10 years, which cost 1000's of innocent lives, which sparked off two unjustified international wars, which has done nothing but to make the world more unstable and dangerous for all its people.

Of course, so this is what Bin Laden wants - his only currency is hate and dogma - if and when Bin Laden dies or is killed - the problems will not go away and the war against terror will not be won. Bin Laden cannot be defeated in death - in fact his personality craves martyrdom - when he is killed, a 1000 new Bin Laden's are born, led away from the cause of right and the decent opinion of mankind by his message of hate and perpetual struggle. He speaks to the poorest and most miserable of men, to the orphans of Iraq, to the rural poor of Afghanistan, to the disgruntled and unhappy and lost everywhere - victory over Bin Laden means to make his message irrelevant, to take away his voice, not his life - for he will speak louder in death.

People really must understand that the threat Bin Laden poses is not really bombs or terror - it is his propoganda that is damaging to world peace. Al Qieda - as an organisation - are pathetically weak compared to their enemies, incapable of anything but cowardly attacks against civilians.

As for the question at hand though, I dont believe Bush would risk such an action, nor would it be politically beneficial in my opinion. If - for example - you were to parade and humiliate a captured Bin Laden before the media two weeks before election, there would certainly be an instant reprisal from his followers.

:rolleyes:

Steps back smiling and not making eye contact.

Holy shit SF and I agree on something!

It's too high a risk for the party. It'd be like Roosevelt knew about the Pearl attack, or if Bush knew about 9/11. While the accusations flow only the blind would believe it. If it turned out to be true (lots of records and whitnesses for these things) it'd bury every Republican.

Lets look at it logically. At absolute least 6 people capture him on the tactical level. They report it to their senior, who goes all the way up to everyone in the Joint Chiefs, who goes straight to the President and all of his cabinate. Now while people in the Military take lots of confidenciality and such agreements I'm sure ONE person in that chain at least would be so revolted by this as to alert the media. Shit this big cant be swept under the carpet without someone noticing a smell.

Yea I did too. When I stopped posting several months ago, SF was on the fringe of TFP politics. He hasn't changed, but the fringe has grown past him.

The risks of keep Osama hidden for purely political gain FAR outweighs the election.

Hell I wouldn't vote republican again unless a lot of people were removed from power if that was true.

Really why would Bush wait till the election to announce a capture of Bin Laden? I think news that Bin Laden was in our custody would be enough to carry the president till the election no matter when in his term it was announced. He would have a definable glorious milestone in his war on terror.

This seems like a pretty good reason to me...
If Bush just pulled some strings and Bin Laden fell out right now, people would have time to investigage a lot before the elections and there would, more than likely, be some scandal or conspiracy theory ( much like some found in this thread ) flying around.... and even more mud-slinging. Fun.

yeah, you have to remember the short term memory of the public, the expediacy of the media and the vitriol of anyone against bush.....

basically, within 1 week at MOST of the election unless he can have several events in a row, then maybe a month. it's all about keeping it in the public, keeping hte media from digging too deeply, and keeping the opponents on the defensive...

I agree with SF and for quite possibly the first time USTWO. You can't keep something like that a secret forever. Even if he was captured by a small number of Spec Op guys far too many people would be involved in the capture to be kept quite. AND there is any of the resons to keep him hidden pail in comparison to the destruction of the republican party that would ensue if the truth got out.

Not saying he is or isn't but hypothetically the sides are already taken. If OBL is found before the election some people will claim it was a plant, and some people will claim it just happened innocently.

What the press says won't matter anymore because noone trusts it. Look what is happening to 60 minutes and CBS. Some news agencies will report it as a fraud and that Bush had it planned, while others will say he didn't. There will be evidence on both sides that both sides will work to destroy and in the end it'll end with noone caring and the nation further divided.

As for too many people knowing..... that can easily be explained away because for every person that comes forward there will be someone that denies it happened and there are political agendas. (Look at what is going on with Swift and Kerry).

So can it happen? Yes

Can Bush get away with it if he did plan it? Yes

Will it be reported as a conspiracy plot even if it happened naturally and wasn't a plant? Yes

Will it affect the bottom line of the election? Doubtful.

Will it divide further no matter how it happens? YES.

It really would be the ultimate distraction in the home stretch. Swing those supposed undecided 15% that swing back and forth once a week. Yeah, no doubt he could pull it off. In 4 years the world will be nostril deep in merde with 100s more bush scandals. No-one will remember this any more than enron or WMDs and yellow niger uranium in iraq.

IMO - People who have not made up their minds this late in the game should be few . If they are swayed in their vote just because BL being captured, they have no clue about what they want and possibly should go back to their cave without voting.

I thought the Pearl harbor comment extremely ironic given the information I have heard regarding that exact scenario did occur--and not from loony places. My understanding is that quite a bit of information is now available to the public on this.

Regardless, you leapfrogged an era: the Carter re-election scandal in regards to hostage released. It not only didn't bury the party, people were scratching their heads about what all the hubabaloo was when the same administration attempted a cameo appearance on the Bush wing--and we were called unpatriotic and traitorous.