Swine Flu... worried yet?

[Charlatan]

I have just been reading about the outbreak of Swine Flu in Mexico and how it is spreading around the world. The US has just declared a Public Health Emergency (see article below).

Changi Airport started screening all arrivals for fever, something they learned during SARS. So far there are no cases here but chance are it will make it's way into South East Asia. I am moderately concerned at this stage and am monitoring the situation. I am hoping this isn't the outbreak that has been promised time and again by the medical authorities.

How do you feel about all of this?





LINK

U.S. Declares Public Health Emergency Over Swine Flu

Responding to what some health officials feared could be the leading edge of a global pandemic emerging from Mexico, American health officials declared a public health emergency on Sunday as 20 cases of swine flu were confirmed in this country, including eight in New York City.

Other nations imposed travel bans or made plans to quarantine air travelers as confirmed cases also appeared in Mexico and Canada and suspect cases emerged elsewhere.

Top global flu experts struggled to predict how dangerous the new A (H1N1) swine flu strain would be as it became clear that they had too little information about Mexico’s outbreak — in particular how many cases had occurred in what is thought to be a month before the outbreak was detected, and whether the virus was mutating to be more lethal, or less.

“We’re in a period in which the picture is evolving,” said Dr. Keiji Fukuda, deputy director general of the World Health Organization. “We need to know the extent to which it causes mild and serious infections.”

Without that knowledge — which is unlikely to emerge soon because only two laboratories, in Atlanta and Winnipeg, Canada, can confirm a case — his agency’s panel of experts was unwilling to raise the global pandemic alert level, even though it officially saw the outbreak as a public health emergency and opened its emergency response center.

As a news conference in Washington, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano called the emergency declaration “standard operating procedure,” and said she would rather call it a “declaration of emergency preparedness.”

“It’s like declaring one for a hurricane,” she said. “It means we can release funds and take other measures. The hurricane may not actually hit.”

American investigators said they expected more cases here, but noted that virtually all so far had been mild and urged Americans not to panic.

The speed and the scope of the world’s response showed the value of preparations made because of the avian flu and SARS scares, public health experts said.

The emergency declaration in the United States lets the government free more money for antiviral drugs and give some previously unapproved tests and drugs to children. One-quarter of the national stockpile of 50 million courses of antiflu drugs will be released.

Border patrols and airport security officers are to begin asking travelers if they have had the flu or a fever; those who appear ill will be stopped, taken aside and given masks while they arrange for medical care.

“This is moving fast and we expect to see more cases,” Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the news conference with Ms. Napolitano. “But we view this as a marathon.”

He advised Americans to wash their hands frequently, to cover coughs and sneezes and to stay home if they felt ill; but he stopped short of advice now given in Mexico to wear masks and not kiss or touch anyone. He praised decisions to close individual schools in New York and Texas but did not call for more widespread closings.

Besides the eight New York cases, officials said they had confirmed seven in California, two in Kansas, two in Texas and one in Ohio. The virus looked identical to the one in Mexico believed to have killed 103 people — including 22 people whose deaths were confirmed to be from swine flu — and sickened about 1,600. As of Sunday night, there were no swine flu deaths in the United States, and one hospitalization.

Other governments tried to contain the infection amid reports of potential new cases including in New Zealand and Spain.

Dr. Fukuda of the W.H.O. said his agency would decide Tuesday whether to raise the pandemic alert level to 4. Such a move would prompt more travel bans, and the agency has been reluctant historically to take actions that hurt member nations.

Canada confirmed six cases, at opposite ends of the country: four in Nova Scotia and two in British Columbia. Canadian health officials said the victims had only mild symptoms and had either recently traveled to Mexico or been in contact with someone who had.

Other governments issued advisories urging citizens not to visit Mexico. China, Japan, Hong Kong and others set up quarantines for anyone possibly infected. Russia and other countries banned pork imports from Mexico, though people cannot get the flu from eating pork.

In the United States, the C.D.C. confirmed that eight students at St. Francis Preparatory School in Fresh Meadows, Queens, had been infected with the new swine flu. At a news conference on Sunday, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg said that all those cases had been mild and that city hospitals had not seen a surge in severe lung infections.

On the streets of New York, people seemed relatively unconcerned, in sharp contrast to Mexico City, where soldiers handed out masks.

Hong Kong, shaped by lasting scars as an epicenter of the SARS outbreak, announced very tough measures. Officials there urged travelers to avoid Mexico and ordered the immediate detention of anyone arriving with a fever higher than 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit after traveling through any city with a confirmed case, which would include New York.

Everyone stopped will be sent to a hospital for a flu test and held until it is negative. Since Hong Kong has Asia’s busiest airport hub, the policy could severely disrupt international travel.

The central question is how many mild cases Mexico has had, Dr. Martin S. Cetron, director of global migration and quarantine for the Centers for Disease Control, said in an interview.

“We may just be looking at the tip of the iceberg, which would give you a skewed initial estimate of the case fatality rate,” he said, meaning that there might have been tens of thousands of mild infections around the 1,300 cases of serious disease and 80 or more deaths. If that is true, as the flu spreads, it would not be surprising if most cases were mild.

Even in 1918, according to the C.D.C., the virus infected at least 500 million of the world’s 1.5 billion people to kill 50 million. Many would have been saved if antiflu drugs, antibiotics and mechanical ventilators had existed.

Another hypothesis, Dr. Cetron said, is that some other factor in Mexico increased lethality, like co-infection with another microbe or an unwittingly dangerous treatment.

Flu experts would also like to know whether current flu shots give any protection because it will be months before a new vaccine can be made.

There is an H1N1 human strain in this year’s shot, and all H1N1 flus are descendants of the 1918 pandemic strain. But flus pick up many mutations, and there will be no proof of protection until the C.D.C. can test stored blood serum containing flu shot antibodies against the new virus. Those tests are under way, said an expert who sent the C.D.C. his blood samples.

Reporting was contributed by Sheryl Gay Stolberg from Washington, Jack Healy from New York, Keith Bradsher from Hong Kong and Ian Austen from Ottawa.

[Manic_Skafe]

I hadn't even heard about it until having received a frantic call from my girlfriend once she found out I was going to a movie theater that's only minutes away from the prep school where the 8 confirmed cases mentioned above were found.

I'm not jumping out of a window over it but this whole business is quite scary.

[Plan9]

Flu? Hell, I ate at Denny's today.

Obviously I'm not scared of much.

...

Media hype: the real killer.

[carrot glace]

interesting, but im not worried either. but if they start coming back to life... i'll be ready

[pan6467]

It'll be interesting and possibly scary to see which way this goes. Will it be the beginning of the end? Mother Nature and God finally having enough of us? Or will this fizzle out and be nothing more than a pesky cold bug?

UNLESS, of course it is some man made virus that some secret society made to kill off a certain population. Or a Giant Pharm's way to make huge sums of money.

I'm very skeptical over it at this time. The future will tell all.

[rBGH]

If they start using terms like cytokine storm, then I'll get worried.

[spindles]

No, but then Australia is a fairly distant place to where the main outbreak is. I'd suggest the amount of traffic from Mexico to here is fairly limited. I may become worried if it spreads wildly from Mexico...

[pan6467]

Originally Posted by spindles

No, but then Australia is a fairly distant place to where the main outbreak is. I'd suggest the amount of traffic from Mexico to here is fairly limited. I may become worried if it spreads wildly from Mexico...

All depends on how well they hold the border.

What I find truly interesting is that Nova Scotia has cases. That means it's probably hitting the shipping, in which case, there won't be a safe area.

What's the incubation period and how easily is it transmitted? I mean if someone carries it for a few days or a week before showing any symptoms, it could be a serious "The Stand" type disease in a matter of months possibly as little as weeks... if the incubation period is a day or 2 and it's transmitted through bodily fluids such as a sneeze or cough, it could be contained and over soon not affecting that many.

[CinnamonGirl]

To quote a friend, "if this results in zombies, I'm gonna be SO PISSED."

[ColonelSpecial]

I am not worried about it but my partner is worried. He is concerned about how it is transmitted.

I think that this flu will end up about as deadly as the bird flu; bad in spots but not an epidemic by any means.

[dlish]

i'm going to invest in a company that sells masks

[Charlatan]

Believe it or not... an email was just sent to our office that requested that anyone with symptoms (sniffles, cough, sneezing, fever, etc.) must wear a mask.

[Frosstbyte]

So far all I'm hearing is pretty shameless fearmongering by media looking for some exciting hype. Nothing about it sounds any different than what they've said for years about avian flu and what they said about SARS. But it sure does make for a good story.

I mean just read the article. They admit they have no idea how dangerous it is or if it's going to be a problem. All we know is that it's made people in Mexico sick and has killed some of them, which the flu does every year. We don't know anything about the people it did kill and the type of medical care they had access to. Really early to be buying biohazard suits and hiding in a basement.

[PonyPotato]

From what I understand, the serotype of this virus appears to be a combination of DNA from human, swine, and bird flu. They're really not sure quite how dangerous it actually is nor how it is being spread.. and no one really understands why cases in Mexico are severe while those elsewhere seem to be pretty mild.

Also, like some previous flu epidemics, this flu appears to attack the "young and healthy" (young adults) disproportionately. That sort of worries me.

However, I am probably going to be pursuing a degree in public health (possibly veterinary public health), so this really interests me. I would like to specialize in epidemiology, so I'm reading as much about this as I can.. while also being a little worried about it.

[Charlatan]

They are saying we should wait 72 hours to see how this develops. As I understand it the concern is that it has jumped the human/animal barrier and that those who have been coming down with it have been getting it human to human (i.e. they haven't been in contact with contaminated animals).

Previous bird flu outbreaks have been strictly animal to human.

It's interesting to see how fast it has spread already, geographically speaking.

[runtuff]

Wash your hands, a lot! It really works!

[Crack]

It's all media hype. Let me repeat that: IT'S ALL MEDIA HYPE.

I had Swine Flu the other day and I am doing jus... BRAINS!

[Reese]

I find that it's healthier not to worry about things that are out of my control.

[stevie667]

considering that normal flu kills tens of thousands every year, this version has a long way to go before i start paying attention to it.

[nomcat]

I recently finished reading The Stand, so it's a little creepy, but I'm not particularly worried about it.

[PonyPotato]

If anyone's interested, there's an H1N1 map here on google maps: H1N1 Swine Flu - Google Maps

[The_Jazz]

22 posts and no one's moving to Madagascar? Internet, you have failed me.

I'm mildly worried because I fly so much (10 flights scheduled in the next 5 weeks but that's going to go up significantly by the end of this week). I'm not worried about myself so much as I am about bringing something back that could make the boys sick. I'll be taking the usual handwashing precaution as well as trying to eat better.

[genuinegirly]

We're visiting relatives in California the first couple of weekends in May, flying through LAX. We're getting flu shots before we go. We don't want to take any chances. I'm worried about our friend who lives in Mexico City.

Thanks for that link, Pony. It's super handy. Hm. Anyone else find it slightly humorous that Africa has no cases? The continent that is plagued with sweeping epidemic levels of Malaria and AIDS isn't touched by the flu.

[Craven Morehead]

Not too concerned, yet. What looks like over reaction is probably appropriate in order to keep it from becoming much worse. Pandemic planning has advanced so much in the past decade that this is just an initial step in containment efforts. Now, if its still expanding its reach in the next couple of months, then yes I'll be concerned.

Four or five years ago I came down with a respiratory flu while in San Francisco on business. The hotel sent me to a local Dr. His 'hobby' was studying pandemics. He recited several statistics that pointed to the world being overdue for a pandemic. He was very concerned that the bird fly would extend beyond Asia. He prescribed Tamiflu to me. As close to a wonder drug as I've ever had. Within 24 hours I was unbelievably better. I understand for Tamilfu to be effective it must be administered soon before the fly sets in. In my case, it was.

[snowy]

Originally Posted by PonyPotato

However, I am probably going to be pursuing a degree in public health (possibly veterinary public health), so this really interests me. I would like to specialize in epidemiology, so I'm reading as much about this as I can.. while also being a little worried about it.

I too find the entire thing fascinating. I have been interested in epidemiology and public health for a long time, so I'm curious to see 1) how this spreads, and 2) how our public health system reacts to it.

I'm not worried yet, though the fact that young people are coming down with this illness is a concern. The CDC does good work, and we're a lot more prepared for a flu pandemic now than we were in 1918, obviously. However, one thing we do have to consider is just how quickly this can move around the globe in these days of international travel.

[Baraka_Guru]

About the young & healthy death issue....

Isn't it because it's the sort of thing that turns your immune system against you? ie., if you have a strong immune system, it will kick the shit out of you.

That's pretty scary.

[ngdawg]

He advised Americans to wash their hands frequently, to cover coughs and sneezes and to stay home if they felt ill; but he stopped short of advice now given in Mexico to wear masks and not kiss or touch anyone. He praised decisions to close individual schools in New York and Texas but did not call for more widespread closings.

That means sneeze or cough into your elbow(sleeve) or a tissue, people!!!
I can't believe the number of people I still see using their bare hands to cover then, thinking they're ok, wipe their hands on their pants.

I'm hoping it doesn't get to my kids' schools-I get pneumonia if I catch the flu.

[Plan9]

Originally Posted by CinnamonGirl

To quote a friend, "if this results in zombies, I'm gonna be SO PISSED."

[Willravel]

BAM!

[Grancey]

When I heard the reports of this last week, it brought back memories of 1976 when my father and I stood in line at our local shopping mall to receive the Swine Flu vaccine. It was a scary time then and a scary time now. This is a link to an article concerning the 1976 scare. It is quite interesting if you don't know anything about it. (My father and I suffered no negative results of taking the vaccine)

Medical News: Is This Swine Flu a Case of Déjà Vu?

BALTIMORE, April 26 -- Before public health officials rush into a large-scale vaccination program, they will undoubtedly look at lessons learned from the last public campaign against swine flu.

That began in February of 1976, in the heat of a presidential primary, when a 19-year-old Army recruit at Fort Dix, N.J., suddenly took ill and died.


Four other soldiers were soon hospitalized, and within two weeks, Army doctors said they were looking at an outbreak of swine flu.


At the time, epidemiologists believed that a related strain of swine flu had been responsible for the great "Spanish Flu" pandemic of 1918-20, which killed more than half a million Americans and at least 20 million worldwide.


That's not so clear today. A recent genetic reconstruction of the 1918 virus by a team of public and private researchers suggests that it was a strain that never actually passed through swine but jumped directly from birds to humans.


The nation's response was a hasty but ambitious inoculation program with the unprecedented goal of reaching the entire population.


In the end, only 24% of Americans actually got swine flu shots before embarrassed public health officials called a halt to the campaign.


One reason was that the swine flu pandemic they had feared never materialized.


Another was a problem with the vaccine, which was linked to some 500 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and at least 25 related deaths from pulmonary complications.


Although most agree that it was a public relations disaster, health historians still debate the merits of the 1976 swine flu vaccination campaign.


Critics call it one of the worst medical boondoggles in modern history. Defenders say it's a classic case of aggressive public health mobilization that saved the nation from a modern plague.


The 1976 public outcry over swine flu spread slowly at first, but gained traction after it appeared that 200 or more soldiers at Fort Dix had come down with flu-like symptoms, although most of the cases were mild.


According to a 2005 review by David Sencer, M.D., M.P.H., who was director of CDC at the time, and J. Donald Millar, M.D., D.T.P.H., who directed the swine flu vaccination program and later became Director of the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, most isolates from the infected soldiers turned out to be the seasonal flu strain current at the time, A/Victoria/75 (H3N2).


But Sencer and Millar recalled that two samples were more mysterious, and the CDC laboratory subsequently identified them as "A/New Jersey/76 (Hsw1N1), similar to the virus of the 1918 pandemic and better known as 'swine flu.' " (See Reflections on the 1976 Swine Flu Vaccination Program)


Timing was an issue. Flu pandemics were appearing roughly every 11 years, and scientists believed that it took about 50 years for a particular flu strain to recycle itself.


That would make the late 1970s a perfect time for a renewed assault by the 1918 strain.


On the upside, with the North American flu season almost over, drug manufacturers were still in a position to produce new batches of vaccine fairly quickly, and the H1N1 strain was already included in vaccines designed for the military.


Worried about the potential for a serious outbreak during the next flu season, especially since no one in the population under the age of 50 had residual antibodies to the H1N1 strain, the CDC and other public health agencies recommended a massive public vaccination program.


Congress agreed to spend $137 million for the vaccine.


Another prominent player was President Gerald R. Ford, who had assumed office in 1974 on the resignation of Richard M. Nixon and was engaged in a tough primary for the full-term Republican nomination.


Ford made a point of pushing for the program. His public inoculation was designed to convince Americans that it was important to get a flu shot -- and, according to political historians -- convince the party that he was the leader they wanted.


But the National Influenza Immunization Program ran into trouble almost immediately. First, the pharmaceutical manufacturers refused to produce the vaccine unless Congress gave them immunity from liability from lawsuits involving adverse reactions.


"While the manufacturers' ultimatum reflected the trend of increased litigiousness in American society, its unintended, unmistakable subliminal message blared, 'There's something wrong with this vaccine,' " Sencer and Millar recalled.


"This public misperception, warranted or not, ensured that every coincidental health event that occurred in the wake of the swine flu shot would be scrutinized and attributed to the vaccine," they wrote.


There were a variety of startup problems, too. One was a miscalculation that resulted in doses that were only half the strength that the manufacturers expected, leading to early shortages.


Then, when the immunization program began, it became clear that the vaccine was not as effective in children as in adults. So they required two doses, leading to further shortages.


Meanwhile, three elderly patients in Pennsylvania died after receiving the vaccine. Headlines across the country screamed the fact. Although their deaths were never tied to the vaccinations, the publicity further undermined public confidence in the program.


More damning were reports of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS), which is relatively rare in the general population but 10 times more prevalent among those who received the swine flu vaccine -- particularly those whose immune systems may have already been compromised.


By December 1976, when 40 million Americans has received swine flu inoculations, there was no evidence that the strain would turn into a pandemic. In fact, it virtually disappeared. With public support evaporating, the government called off the immunization campaign.


Critics say the program was too hasty and ill conceived -- and that it ultimately undermined the public's confidence in the nation's public health apparatus.


But Sencer and Millar, who were in the thick of the fight, said they had no regrets.


"When lives are at stake, it is better to err on the side of overreaction than underreaction," they wrote. "Because of the unpredictability of influenza, responsible public health leaders must be willing to take risks on behalf of the public."

Wash your hands. Be diligent. Officials are saying they won't know until Friday how this is really going to effect us.

[MSD]

Remember during the stimulus bill debates, when a section containing $420M for pandemic flu prevention were removed after Republicans screamed "pork"? The response to SARS is what prevented a pandemic and had H5N1 spread human-to-human, the preparation for a response would have limited its scope. This was extremely short-sighted.

Originally Posted by pan6467

UNLESS, of course it is some man made virus that some secret society made to kill off a certain population.

Michael Savage has already assured his listeners that this was engineered by al-Qaeda. I'm sure his faith in homeopathy will keep him safe, though.

Originally Posted by rBGH

If they start using terms like cytokine storm, then I'll get worried.

I have bad news for you. The deaths in Mexico were in the 20-40 age group. There are two likely causes for that. the first is that people in that age group are the most social and likely to have close contact. The second is cytokine storms. Nothing official yet, but I get the feeling we'll be hearing conclusive results tomorrow.

It's also worth noting that after new studies, some are proposing that the reason 1918 was so deadly was secondary pneumonia infections rather than CSs, but that's going to take a lot more research before anything conclusive comes out.

Originally Posted by genuinegirly

We're visiting relatives in California the first couple of weekends in May, flying through LAX. We're getting flu shots before we go.

Unfortunately, CDC estimates as of Saturday had the effectiveness of this year's flu shot against this strain as being low. They did say that it might help, especially if the virus mutates, so there's no reason not to get it.

[Willravel]

Originally Posted by MSD

Remember during the stimulus bill debates, when a section containing $420M for pandemic flu prevention were removed after Republicans screamed "pork"? The response to SARS is what prevented a pandemic and had H5N1 spread human-to-human, the preparation for a response would have limited its scope. This was extremely short-sighted.

Good memory.

[World's King]

This is so odd...


I was never worried about mad cow... and I'm not at all worried about swine flu...



Call me when Sheep AIDS starts to spread.

[Crack]

Originally Posted by World's King

This is so odd...


I was never worried about mad cow... and I'm not at all worried about swine flu...



Call me when Sheep AIDS starts to spread.

HA!

I am concerned about horse herpes.

[World's King]

Originally Posted by Crack

HA!

I am concerned about horse herpes.

I already have horse herpes.



Shit got really weird during Spring Break in Cancun last year... I don't really wanna get into it.

[The_Jazz]

Originally Posted by World's King

I already have horse herpes.

Wow, I would have thought that the chicken clamydia would cancel that out. I just learned something. Thanks, World's King! You're the best!

[Rekna]

Republican's can't catch a break.... The fact that they successfully opposed funding to help prevent a pandemic of the swine flu months ago will haunt them.

[Lucifer]

Originally Posted by World's King

This is so odd...


I was never worried about mad cow... and I'm not at all worried about swine flu...



Call me when Sheep AIDS starts to spread.

Funnily enough, though, I lived in England during the mad cow crisis, and now I'm not allowed to donate blood!

[dlish]

Originally Posted by genuinegirly

Hm. Anyone else find it slightly humorous that Africa has no cases? The continent that is plagued with sweeping epidemic levels of Malaria and AIDS isn't touched by the flu.

hey dont forget that the middle east remains untouched by the swine flu too!

must be the whole muslim/jewish thing keeping it from reaching here.

i wonder if they'd start slaughtering people if people started getting it here... ok bad joke, but im allowed to say it..right?

seriously though, im not too fussed..except that i may be in mexico in a few months. maybe a change of plans...we'll see

[CinnamonGirl]

Originally Posted by Crompsin

I think you're a little too excited about a zombie attack.


Then again, maybe you're prepared. I am not. I realized this today.