Politics The 2020 US Presidential Election

And so it begins...

I created the 2016 thread, so here is the 2020 thread. I was trying to wait until 2019, but it seems like the candidates want to start campaigning again.

Today marks the 'official' start when Elizabeth Warren decided to run in the Democratic primary. About 23 months before the election...

Who do you think will do well? Who do you support? Who will you vote against? Who else do you think will run? Is it way too early to deal with this (yes)? What will the big issues be for you and for the country?

Is there anybody else that I should add to the list that you want to see run for office?


Confirmed Democrats:
Elizabeth Warren

Possible Democrats:
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Kirsten Gillibrand
Beto O'Rourke
Joe Kennedy
Richard Ojeda
Hillary Clinton
Amy Klobuchar
Seth Moulton
Tim Ryan
Eric Swalwell
Mitch Landrieu
Steve Bullock
Andrew Cuomo
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
Terry McAuliffe
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
Jeff Merkley
Kamala Harris
Mark Werner
John Kerry
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Julian Castro
Howard Schultz
Eric Holder
Eric Garcetti
Chris Murphy
Deval Patrick
Al Gore
Jerry Brown
Marc Cuban
Tom Steyer
Oprah Winfrey
The Rock


Confirmed Republicans:
Donald Trump

Possible Republicans:
John Kasich
Paul Ryan
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz



Possible Green:



Possible Libertarian:



Possible Socialist:

 

I had much more positive feelings toward Senator Warren a year ago than I do now.
The election is the Democrats to lose. The way to lose will be by running on identity politics.

 

If Trump somehow implodes and doesn't run, I would expect the Repubs to nominate Nikki Haley.

 

Some updates to the list... Tom Steyer said he was not going to run. Tulsi Gabbard announced that she is running. And a few others have started talking about it. I added Nikki Haley, as if she ran the primary on the Republican side would get more interesting. I'm sure there is some 4-star general who could run and make this tougher for Trump to win the primary. Even if it is Pense that decides that he is done being the VP and wants to run, he could make things interesting in the GOP primary.



Confirmed Democrats:
Elizabeth Warren
Tulsi Gabbard

Possible Democrats:
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Kirsten Gillibrand
Beto O'Rourke
Joe Kennedy
Richard Ojeda
Hillary Clinton
Amy Klobuchar
Seth Moulton
Tim Ryan
Eric Swalwell
Mitch Landrieu
Steve Bullock
Andrew Cuomo
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
Terry McAuliffe
John Delaney
Jeff Merkley
Kamala Harris
Mark Werner
John Kerry
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Julian Castro
Howard Schultz
Eric Holder
Eric Garcetti
Chris Murphy
Deval Patrick
Al Gore
Jerry Brown
Marc Cuban
Micheal Bloomberg
Oprah Winfrey
The Rock
Steve Bullock


Confirmed Republicans:
Donald Trump

Possible Republicans:
John Kasich
Paul Ryan
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Mike Pense
Colin Powell
Jeff Flake
Bob Corker
Ben Sasse


Possible Green:



Possible Libertarian:



Possible Socialist:
[/QUOTE]

 

Julian Castro, former mayor of San Antonio and Sec of HUD under Obama, announced today. He is an impressive guy and will have some appeal. His twin brother, Joaquín, is a congressman from Texas.

But ultimately, I think candidates like Tulsi Gabbard and Castro are more realistically auditioning for VP consideration.

Meanwhile....the first Democratic primary debate is only six months away.

How Democrats are changing the primary debate schedule for 2020 candidates

 

This is part of the USA's problem. You never stop campaigning.

 

It didn't used to be this way, sure there were long campaigns prior to 2014-2016, but one thing Trump gets that the Democrats don't, is that you need to play to your base. Forget Iowa and New Hampshire, if you don't hold rallies and public meetings/town halls in NYC, Seattle, and San Francisco, you won't get a base of support to protect you from the on-line trolls and to persuade other people as to why they should vote for them. And the time to go to those places is a year before the primary and up to the primary.

 

And who is the Democrat's base? I am not sure that is a clear group.

 

The Democrats are a leaderless group right now, and there are many sub groups. And I really don't see there being a breakout populist front runner from the current candidates.

But FiveThirtyEight is using this breakdown:

1. Party Loyalists
   
2. The Left
3. Millennials and Friends
4. Black voters
5. Hispanic voters (sometimes in combination with Asian voters)

The 5 Corners Of The 2020 Democratic Primary

(I would put the rich liberals in the Party Loyalist group)
I would have picked some other categories, but it is a fair assessment.

Even though they make up 55% of the voters in this country, I have my doubts that they will come together in 2020 if their favored primary candidate doesn't win, or if the candidate has baggage and bad votes (Iraq war, marriage, environment, corporate money...). I also wonder how many people are going to switch their vote from the Republican to Democrat and vice versa. I have a feeling that even two years later, that if the 2016 election was held tomorrow that the outcome would be the same. The Trump fans are just as passionate, and the Democrats are just as passive about Hilary.

Just like I would have some different categories for the Republicans than:
1. Moderate
2. Establishment
3. Christian Conservative
4. Libertarian
5. Tea Party


Confirmed Democrats:
Elizabeth Warren
Tulsi Gabbard
Julian Castro
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Delaney
Richard Ojeda


Possible Democrats:
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Cory Booker
Sherrod Brown
Beto O'Rourke
Joe Kennedy
Hillary Clinton
Amy Klobuchar
Seth Moulton
Tim Ryan
Eric Swalwell
Mitch Landrieu
Steve Bullock
Andrew Cuomo
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
Terry McAuliffe
John Delaney
Jeff Merkley
Mark Werner
John Kerry
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Julian Castro
Howard Schultz
Eric Holder
Eric Garcetti
Chris Murphy
Deval Patrick
Al Gore
Jerry Brown
Marc Cuban
Micheal Bloomberg
Oprah Winfrey
The Rock
Steve Bullock
Marianne Williamson


Confirmed Republicans:
Donald Trump

Possible Republicans:
John Kasich
Paul Ryan
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Mike Pense
Colin Powell
Jeff Flake
Bob Corker
Ben Sasse
Bill Kistol
Larry Hogan
Bob Corker
Jeff Flake



Possible Green:



Possible Libertarian:



Possible Socialist:

 

I disagree. If "none of the above" was an option in 2016, it would have won in a landslide. I think there was a fair degree of complacency in thinking Trump couldn't possibly win. That wouldn't happen a second time.

That said, Democrats need to decide on a less flawed candidate this time around.

 

But that isn't how Democracy works. For better or for worse we have the system we have, and the only way to fix it is if more of those "none of the above" people would start showing up and either pushing the candidates to do the right things or helping to elect people that aren't corrupt.

Trump may have lost a few states if a re-do election was held Nov 10, 2016, but I think he would have likely still won the 270 electoral college votes. Even going into 2020, there are only 8 or so states that can swing either way, and yes, the Democrats do have to nominate someone with experience, but without distracting scandals in their past. I want to see them find someone who can hold bigger rallies and more of them. Not who can hold the most private fundraising dinners...

A few more people have entered into the race in the past few days. And Ojeda suspended his campaign (I think he is someone any of the candidates should pick as part of their administration though. But the media doesn't know how to cover people outside of Washington).


Confirmed Democrats:
Elizabeth Warren
Tulsi Gabbard
Julian Castro
Cory Booker
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Delaney
Pete Buttigieg
Amy Klobuchar


Possible Democrats:
Bernie Sanders
Joe Biden
Sherrod Brown
Beto O'Rourke
Joe Kennedy
Hillary Clinton
Seth Moulton
Tim Ryan
Eric Swalwell
Mitch Landrieu
Steve Bullock
Andrew Cuomo
John Hickenlooper
Jay Inslee
Terry McAuliffe
John Delaney
Jeff Merkley
Mark Werner
John Kerry
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Julian Castro
Eric Holder
Eric Garcetti
Chris Murphy
Deval Patrick
Michael Bennett
Al Gore
Jerry Brown
Marc Cuban
Micheal Bloomberg
Oprah Winfrey
The Rock
Steve Bullock
Marianne Williamson



Confirmed Republicans:
Donald Trump

Possible Republicans:
John Kasich
Paul Ryan
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Mike Pense
Colin Powell
Jeff Flake
Bob Corker
Ben Sasse
Bill Kistol
Larry Hogan
Bob Corker
Jeff Flake



Confirmed Green:
Dario Hunter
Ian Schlakman

Possible Green:
Jesse Ventura
Howie Hawkins



Confirmed Libertarian:
Adam Kokesh
John McAfee
Sam Seder
Vermin Supreme
Arvin Vohra

Possible Libertarian:
Bill Weld
Justin Amash
Tom Campbell
Jeffery Miron
Peter Schiff
Larry Sharpe
Joe Walsh



Possible Socialist:
Gloria LaRiva
Eugene Puryear
Elijah Manley
Jerry White



Possible Independent:
Howard Schultz

 

The Democrats announced the qualifications for their Presidential Debates that start this summer.

“Candidates can qualify either by attracting campaign donations from at least 65,000 people, including at least 200 people from at least 20 states, or by registering at least 1 percent in three state or national polls from a list of surveys approved by the party.”
https://wapo.st/2IfW7qa

One percent in three polls sounds like a low standard but really isnt if you have little or no name recognition and you cant get the name recognition if you dont make the debates.

The donations level is an interesting standard. The Democrats introduced an online tool for candidates , ActBlue, that in last year's midterm elections helped those candidates, many of whom were outsiders, raise more than $1 billion combined for their campaigns with a link on their campaign website...all from small donors (average contributions in the $25-50 range.

Exclusive: Fired-up liberals raise $1 billion on website for candidates, causes ahead of midterms.

Republicans are apparently hurrying to catch up with their own version of a ActBlue.

 

I like the donation method of getting into the debates. I wonder if that is a reasonable number or not for the entry level candidates to reach? Do we know how many donations the declared candidates have yet?

 

Candidates must file quarterly reports with Federal Election Commission:

Browse candidates for president - FEC.gov

Former congressman John Delaney -- $6+ million? (most of it his own money?)
Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro -- $220k

You should be able to dig deeper for the number of contributors by clicking the name of any candidate. They are required to list all contributors over $200 (by name and address) but often that data take longer to appear in the FEC database.

For those who formally announced (and formed a committee) in the last month -- Warren, Booker, Harris, Klobuchar -- their first reporting quarter will be next quarter (Apr-June)

 

Well, I have been slacking during my travels in the past few weeks. A lot has changed. Hillary is out, Sherrod Brown is out, and Michael Bloomberg is out. Bernie is in, Governor John Hickenlooper is in, along with Governor Jay Inslee. Andrew Yang is running on a universal basic income and is the only one talking about automation taking the jobs.


Confirmed Democrats:
Elizabeth Warren
Tulsi Gabbard
Julian Castro
Cory Booker
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Delaney
Pete Buttigieg
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Andrew Yang
Jay Inslee
John Hickenlooper
Merrianne Williamson

Possible Democrats:
Joe Biden
Beto O'Rourke
Joe Kennedy
Seth Moulton
Tim Ryan
Eric Swalwell
Mitch Landrieu
Steve Bullock
Andrew Cuomo
Terry McAuliffe
John Delaney
Jeff Merkley
Mark Werner
John Kerry
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Julian Castro
Eric Holder
Eric Garcetti
Chris Murphy
Deval Patrick
Michael Bennett
Al Gore
Jerry Brown
Marc Cuban
Micheal Bloomberg
Oprah Winfrey
The Rock
Steve Bullock



Confirmed Republicans:
Donald Trump
William Weld

Possible Republicans:
John Kasich
Paul Ryan
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Mike Pense
Colin Powell
Jeff Flake
Bob Corker
Ben Sasse
Bill Kistol
Larry Hogan
Bob Corker
Jeff Flake



Confirmed Green:
Dario Hunter
Ian Schlakman

Possible Green:
Jesse Ventura
Howie Hawkins



Confirmed Libertarian:
Adam Kokesh
John McAfee
Sam Seder
Vermin Supreme
Arvin Vohra

Possible Libertarian:
Bill Weld
Justin Amash
Tom Campbell
Jeffery Miron
Peter Schiff
Larry Sharpe
Joe Walsh



Possible Socialist:
Gloria LaRiva
Eugene Puryear
Elijah Manley
Jerry White



Possible Independent:
Howard Schultz