Politics Romney - Is he ready?

Baraka_Guru · Jun 21, 2012

rogue49 said: ↑

It doesn't sound like Romney is connecting with many.
He needs to start not just doing talking points and ripping on Obama...but truly giving his policy and opinion.
Click to expand...

He's already on it!

"Romney Exhibits a Change in Tone on Immigration"—New York Times

pan6467 · Jun 29, 2012

Considering Bain capital owns Clear Channel and Clear Channel owns Premier Networks thus giving a 100 MILLION dollar contract to Glenn Beck recently and making Limbaugh/Hannity/Savage very rich men, I find it sad the little guys supporting the GOP, who listen to those guys have not been informed that those hosts who pushed Romney through the primaries while trashing the other candidates NEVER ONCE mentioned their conflict of interest. NEVER ONCE recused themselves from supporting Romney.

NEVER ONCE has one of them stated, "Bain Capital owns the company I work for and thus pays my paycheck. As such I can not speak out against my employer (ahem Romney) and support another candidate, therefore to show my impartiality and not be accused of using my position on the radio or tv shows, I can not in good faith publicly support Romney or any GOP candidate in the primaries as it would be a conflict of interest for me and could appear to be biased, much the same as I accuse other networks and media as being biased for Obama and the Democrats."
--- merged: Jun 22, 2012 at 1:34 AM ---
These hosts also made it a point to ridicule Jon Stewart's bias (among others) when they were honest and admitted donating money to Obama's campaign.

rogue49 · Jul 4, 2012

So is Romney trustworthy here??
What is the actual intent and usage...getting by just doing things "just so" to be within the law?
Or is this just Romney's future equivalent to Obama's Birth Certificate issue by conspiracy nuts?

Personally, I think he's hiding something...but it is irrelevant to me.
I'm looking at his leadership qualities, tendencies & policy details. (which need to solidify QUICK...)
What is your perspective?

Mystery Bermuda-based company and other undisclosed Romney assets hint at larger wealth
By Associated Press, Wednesday, July 4

WASHINGTON — For nearly 15 years, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney’s financial portfolio has included an offshore company that remained invisible to voters as his political star rose.

Based in Bermuda, Sankaty High Yield Asset Investors Ltd. was not listed on any of Romney’s state or federal financial reports. The company is among several Romney holdings that have not been fully disclosed, including one that recently posted a $1.9 million earning — suggesting he could be wealthier than the nearly $250 million estimated by his campaign.

The omissions were permitted by state and federal authorities overseeing Romney’s ethics filings, and he has never been cited for failing to disclose information about his money. But Romney’s limited disclosures deprive the public of an accurate depiction of his wealth and a clear understanding of how his assets are handled and taxed, according to experts in private equity, tax and campaign finance law.

Sankaty was transferred to a trust owned by Romney’s wife, Ann, one day before he was sworn in as Massachusetts governor in 2003, according to Bermuda records obtained by The Associated Press. The Romneys’ ownership of the offshore firm did not appear on any state or federal financial reports during Romney’s two presidential campaigns. Only the Romneys’ 2010 tax records, released under political pressure earlier this year, confirmed their continuing control of the company.

The mystery surrounding Sankaty reinforces Romney’s history of keeping a tight rein on his public dealings, already documented by his use of private email and computer purges as Massachusetts governor and his refusal to disclose his top fundraisers. The Bermuda company had almost no assets, according to Romney’s 2010 tax returns. But such partnership stakes could still provide significant income for years to come, said tax experts, who added that the lack of disclosure makes it impossible to know for certain.

“We don’t know the big picture,” said Victor Fleischer, a University of Colorado law professor and private equity expert who urged corporate tax code reforms during congressional testimony last year. “Most of these disclosure rules are designed for people who have passive ownership of stocks and bonds. But in this case, he continues to own management interests that fluctuate greatly in value long after his time with the company and even the end of his separation agreement. And the public has no clear idea where the money is coming from or when it will end.”

Named for a historic Massachusetts coastal lighthouse, Sankaty was part of a cluster of similarly named hedge funds run by Bain Capital, the private equity firm Romney founded and led until 1999. The offshore company was used in Bain’s $1 billion takeover of Domino’s Pizza and other multimillion-dollar investment deals more than a decade ago.

Romney’s campaign declined to answer detailed questions from AP about Sankaty. Romney aides have said in the past that some disclosures were not required because those assets were valued by his financial advisers at less than $1,000 — below the minimum threshold under federal rules set by the U.S. Office of Government Ethics. A financial snapshot of Sankaty in Romney’s 2010 tax returns showed the holding with almost no value at the time— with $10,000 in both assets and liabilities.

“Everything on the filings is reported as required,” campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul said in a brief statement. “If OGE has an issue with any filings, they would let us know.” The agency declined to comment.

While Sankaty no longer plays an active role in Bain’s current deals, private equity experts said such holdings could provide significant income to Romney under his 10-year separation agreement from Bain, which expired in 2009. Investment funds typically churn “carried interest,” profit shares due to the managers of the funds that often range as much as 20 percent of a fund’s annual profit — known as “the carry.” Even after investment funds are exhausted, profit shares and other late earnings from those stakes can continue to stream, arriving as lucrative “tails,” tax experts say. In some circumstances, the analysts added, offshore companies like Sankaty could also offer limited tax deferral advantages.

The implications of Romney’s Bain profit-sharing became clear last month when his trust reported that one rarely disclosed asset had posted a $1.9 million payout. The income was described as a “true-up” payment, catch-up income that made up for unpaid earnings owed to Romney as part of his Bain separation agreement.

Such sizable earnings are possible “depending on the terms of the agreement,” said tax law expert Michael Kosnitzky, an attorney at the New York firm of Boies, Schiller & Flexner. The Romney campaign acknowledged recently that it could not rule out more large future payments.

The use of offshore companies such as Sankaty is allowed under U.S. tax laws. They are typically set up as shell corporations by private equity and hedge funds to route investments from large foreign and institutional investors, such as large pension plans, into corporate takeovers. The money is used to provide equity and buy up debt. In turn, the investors gain U.S. tax advantages by passing their funds through the offshore “blocker” corporations, avoiding a high 35 percent tax on earnings that the Internal Revenue Service describes as “unrelated business income.”

Set up in Bermuda in 1997, Sankaty served as Romney’s partnership stake in Bain’s Sankaty group, which invests in bonds, bank loans and corporate debt instruments. That first wave of Sankaty funds managed more than $100 million in investments in the late 1990s and early 2000s, according to a corporate analyst familiar with the funds. The analyst insisted on anonymity because the analyst was not authorized to discuss the funds publicly.

Since late 2003, Romney has left his financial decisions to what his campaign describes as a “blind trust” overseen by lawyer R. Bradford Malt, a longtime Boston legal associate. The trust was set up under Massachusetts law, but it’s not a federally qualified blind trust — which Romney plans to use if he wins the presidency. Romney does not oversee his investments under his current trust, but its general composition is made public and Malt invests according to Romney’s political positions.

Romney’s 2010 tax returns show him and his wife as sole owners of Sankaty. A 2011 Bermuda legal document lists Malt as Sankaty’s president. Michael F. Goss, currently Bain Capital’s chief operating officer, is listed as vice president, and Quorum Corporate Ltd., a Bermuda law firm, as secretary. Malt deferred questions about Sankaty to the Romney campaign; Bain Capital and Quorum declined to comment.

The candidate’s 2010 tax returns listed at least 20 investment holdings besides Sankaty that had not been previously disclosed on federal reports. At least seven were foreign investments. Bain Capital Inc., the holding that posted the $1.9 million earning, was listed on Romney’s state ethics reports in 2001 and 2002, when he ran for governor, but was missing from any annual ethics report until Romney’s trust included it last month on his 2012 financial statement.

Sankaty is the only offshore holding in the Romneys’ portfolio under their full control. On his 2010 taxes, Romney’s blind trust filed an IRS form identifying Sankaty as a “controlled foreign corporation.” That filing is required for any U.S. taxpayer who owns more than 50 percent of a foreign company. Romney’s 2010 tax returns indicate that he and his wife control all 12,000 shares.

Several U.S. Securities and Exchange documents from the late 1990s and 2000s depicted Romney as Sankaty’s owner at the time, but when he ran for Massachusetts governor in 2001 and 2002, Romney did not list the company on annual disclosure forms required by the Massachusetts State Ethics Commission.

The ethics commission would not comment on the omissions. Boston College law professor R. Michael Cassidy, who was a member of the commission at the time, said that if Romney “owned this business before he signed his ethics disclosure, then he was obliged to report it.” The state’s disclosure rules also allow a $1,000 minimum threshold. A six-year statute of limitations covering Romney’s ethics reports has since expired.

Bermuda legal documents show that on Jan. 1, 2003, the day before Romney was sworn in as governor, his wife’s trust acquired 12,000 shares of Sankaty. The transfer was not made public. The month before, Romney had placed his assets in the state-approved trust overseen by Malt. The move legally allowed the trust to describe Romney’s holdings in 2003 only as “various investments and securities” — without providing details. The trust filed similar disclosures between 2004 and 2007, the last year of Romney’s term.

Romney’s use of Sankaty as his partnership stake in Bain deals is documented in several U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission reports between 1998 and 2000. The company controlled 50,000 shares of Global-Tech Appliances Inc., a Chinese appliance firm that Bain briefly invested in. Sankaty was also used to manage 385,000 shares in the 1999 takeover of Domino’s, as well as the $75 million investment into the Stericycle waste disposal firm and a $150 million investment in the US LEC telecommunication firm.

Romney was named as sole owner and president of Sankaty in several of those documents. Though no longer active at Bain by then because he had left to head Salt Lake City’s Olympic Games bid, Romney remained a participant because of his partnership stake.

Even though Sankaty is no longer used for Bain investments, several tax analysts said its legal offshore status still could be used by Romney to defer some taxes on some of the “carried interest” income related to the Bain deals.

Romney has said he gets no tax break. He told an audience at a Maine town hall appearance in February that “I have not saved one dollar by having an investment somewhere outside this country.”

But the lack of disclosure over the years, private equity experts said, makes it impossible to tell.

“Without knowing more about an offshore’s history and how it was used,” Fleischer said, “you’re left in the dark.”

© The Washington Post Company
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MKOLLER · Jul 5, 2012

Mitt Romney's platform (as shown on mittromney.com) is what I really have a problem with. Not to mention half of them are subheaded with the phrase "Obama's Failure." Here are some examples:

- "The United States enjoys significant leverage over both [Afghanistan and Pakistan]. We should not be shy in using it."
- "In the face of China's accelerated military build-up, the United States and our allies must maintain appropriate military capabilities to discourage any aggressive or coercive behavior by China against its neighbors." Also, "The United States should maintain and expand its naval presence in the Western Pacific." In many cases, Romney sees China as a threat, but then: "[Mitt] will assure China it will not be alone in dealing with the humanitarian and security issues that will arise should North Korea disintegrate."
- "The United States should restore the regular presence of aircraft carrier task forces in both the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf region simultaneously."
- "The United States will reduce assistance to the Palestinians if they continue to pursue United Nations recognition or form a unity government that includes Hamas, a terrorist group dedicated to Israel's destruction...The United States must work as a country to resist the worldwide campaign to delegitimize Israel." I'm not sure what to think here. The problem is that Romney's campaign seems to believe that matching wits with the rest of the world is a good idea.

- "...the United states and Mexico should explore the need for enhanced military-to-military training cooperation..."
- "Mitt will begin by reversing Obama-era Defense cuts..." OK, this one confused me. Last year's military expenses totaled over 2.5x what Bush spent in a year; what got cut?
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All in all, from just that little bit, it sounds to me like Mitt Romney wants to militarize a third of the world, and that's just not cool.

rogue49 · Jul 6, 2012

Well, if you think you're confused with that...you can continued to be confused with this.
Flip-flopping so much, like a damn landed fish...

Mr. Romney Changes His Mind, Again
July 5, 2012

Massachusetts residents who file a state tax return have to provide proof that they have health insurance. If they can afford insurance but don’t have it, they must “pay a penalty through their tax returns,” according to the state Department of Revenue’s Web site.

This is all thanks to former Gov. Mitt Romney, who set up the system — the best of its kind in the country — and is now trying to pretend he doesn’t remember how it works. On Monday, his campaign said Mr. Romney believed the identical requirement in President Obama’s health care law was a penalty, paid through the tax system. Two days later, Mr. Romney rushed to the cameras to contradict the campaign and insist the mandate was a tax.

Why the switch? As he has on so many issues, Mr. Romney caved to Republican conservatives who want him to campaign on the falsehood that the mandate is a vast tax increase on the middle class. The Supreme Court’s decision that the law is constitutional was disastrous to their cause, so they distorted its basic reasoning. Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. wrote that the mandate is legal under the Congressional taxing power, which Republicans took a step further, saying the mandate must now be a tax. And not just a tax, but a huge, oppressive tax, one of the largest in history.

It is, of course, no such thing. How many “oppressive taxes” are entirely optional? Anyone who does the smart thing and gets health insurance won’t have to pay it. It is, as Mr. Romney himself described it in 2006, a fee to promote “personal responsibility” and prevent healthy people from freeloading. (Among those who won’t be able to comply with the law are poor people living in states where Republican governors refuse to expand their Medicaid programs using federal dollars — though most of those people don’t make enough to have to pay the penalty.)

The tax-vs.-penalty debate is a legal and semantic issue that has no practical impact on the public, but making this argument says a great deal about Mr. Romney’s inch-deep position on health care. Since the beginning of his campaign, he has fled from his significant achievement in Massachusetts, hoping to attract conservatives who never trusted him.

His explanation has been that it is perfectly acceptable for a state to do something that would be economically ruinous for the federal government to try. He used the same rationale on Wednesday in explaining why the mandate was a pragmatic penalty in Massachusetts but an insidious tax in Washington.

He’d rather talk about this than admit he once had a good idea to cover people without insurance and that Mr. Obama was right to duplicate it. Now he has no plan except a promise to repeal a virtual carbon copy of his own program.

His hairsplitting argument over federalism obscures the real issue for most people: Is the health care system so broken that government must intervene to fix it so that tens of millions can get proper medical care?

Against all evidence, Mr. Romney and his party believe the private system will simply fix itself if government gets out of the way.

At least, that’s what he says he believes now...

NYTimes 2012
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rogue49 · Jul 6, 2012

If he thinks his time as Governor is going to be the only thing used against him, he's got another thing coming.
Boy-howdy - this off-shore assets thing is going to be a bitch to address. (especially as they keep diggin'...those reporters tend to do that)
And if you don't think Obama isn't going to use his resources as Prez to dig more, you're gotta be kidding me.

Personally, it's the lack of details and original solutions that's point to be made.
But that's not going to be the BIG stick constantly whackin' him in the head and "the boys"

This thing just keeps popping up...they smell blood in the water.

The political risks of Mitt Romney’s financial skills
By Eugene Robinson, Published: July 5

You can conduct byzantine transactions through opaque investment accounts and private corporations in offshore tax havens such as Bermuda and the Cayman Islands. Or you can credibly run for president at a time of great economic distress.

I don’t think you can do both.

Let me be clear that I have nothing against wealth. In fact, I have nothing against great wealth, which is how I would classify Mitt Romney’s estimated $250 million fortune. We can argue about the social utility of private- equity firms such as Bain Capital, but Romney isn’t responsible for distorting the system so that financiers are grossly overpaid. He just took advantage of the situation.

Increasingly, however, I have to wonder whether the achievement Romney touts as his biggest asset in running for president — his business success — might be seen by many voters as a liability.

The question isn’t whether people can relate to a candidate who has tons of money. It’s whether they will connect with a man who didn’t make his money the old-fashioned way — by building a better widget — but by sending capital hither and yon via clicks of a computer mouse to take advantage of arcane opportunities most people never even know about.

Most Americans, for example, do not have an individual retirement account valued at between $20 million and $101 million, as Romney stated last year in a financial disclosure report.

When Romney was running Bain and building up his IRA, the maximum annual contribution permitted by the tax code was $2,000. So how did Romney’s IRA get so huge? He won’t say. It’s possible that he rolled over some money that was originally in a 401(k) retirement plan of the kind offered by many employers. But annual 401(k) contributions were then capped at $30,000, including an employer match — in Romney’s world, chump change.

Analysts surmise that Romney may have placed his interests in various Bain investment partnerships in the IRA, taking advantage of Internal Revenue Service rules that allow these interests to be undervalued for IRA purposes. In some cases they can even be valued at zero, since partnership interests represent future income, not present income, and . . .

Okay, I know I’m losing you here — but you get the point. Individual retirement accounts were created as a way for middle-class Americans to save some tax-deferred money for their senior years. It isn’t clear exactly what Romney is using his gargantuan IRA for, but it’s certainly not what Congress intended.

Then there’s the question of a Bermuda-based company that Romney and his wife, Ann, own, Sankaty High Yield Asset Investors Ltd. According to the Associated Press, the company has been part of Romney’s portfolio for nearly 15 years, but it was not mentioned in any state or federal disclosure reports. It surfaced in Romney’s 2010 tax returns, which he reluctantly released earlier this year.

According to those returns, Sankaty is little more than an empty shell at the moment. But the AP reports that the company “served as Romney’s partnership stake” in a larger group of Sankaty-named funds that Bain once used to manage more than $100 million in investments. (Sankaty, by the way, is the name of a lighthouse on Nantucket.) Channeling private-equity and hedge-fund investments through offshore firms in places such as Bermuda and the Caymans can allow investors to avoid a tax on what is known as “unrelated business income.”

Romney’s campaign says that he pays every penny he is required to pay in taxes — although his income is taxed at about 15 percent, a lower rate than most middle-class Americans pay. Hey, I understand; if I could get away with paying less in taxes, I’d do it, too. And I suppose that if God didn’t want us to have offshore pass-through accounts in sun-drenched tax havens, he wouldn’t have invented them.

But one of the sources of anger and anxiety in this country — on the left and the right — is the sense that there are two sets of rules, one for the rich and powerful and one for everybody else. I don’t think voters want a “regular guy” as president; they want someone who is exceptional. But there is a point at which opportunism begins to shade into rapacity.

In making and managing his money, Romney appears to take every possible, conceivable, imaginable inch that the law arguably allows. That’s good finance. But I doubt it’s good politics.

© The Washington Post Company
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Baraka_Guru · Jul 12, 2012

Guys, is he ready yet?

Romney has begun calling Obama “extremely liberal” when he’s talking about Obama’s tax-increase proposal. That’s more and more of what you’ll hear from the GOP. Bill Clinton had retired the “tax-and-spend liberal” label for his party for a while and Obama has worked hard to avoid it, but surveys suggest he may not be able to outrun the charge this time.
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Romney Keeps it Simple: Obama is a Tax and Spend Liberal | Fox News

Americans paid the lowest tax rates in 30 years to the federal government in 2009, in part because of tax cuts President Barack Obama sought to combat the Great Recession, congressional budget analysts said Tuesday.

A sharp decline in income -- especially among the wealthiest Americans, who pay the highest tax rates -- also played a role, according to the report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. Household income fell 12 percent on average from 2007 to 2009, with income among the top 1 percent of earners decreasing by more than a third.

Still, at the very moment anti-tax protesters were emerging as the most powerful force in American politics, handing Republicans landslide control of the U.S. House, the data show that people were sending the smallest portion of their income to the federal government since 1979.

During Obama's first year in office, the average tax rate paid by all households fell to 17.4 percent, down from 19.9 percent in 2007, according to the CBO. The 2009 rate was significantly lower than the previous low of 19.4 percent in 2003 and well below the 30-year average of 21 percent.
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Federal tax rates hit 30-year low in 2009

rogue49 · Jul 13, 2012

There are two BIG things starting to be tagged to Romney.
Reporters and Obama's campaign are starting to smell blood in the water.

The off-shore accounts & tax manipulation

The time when Romney resolved his ties with Bain (1999 vs 2003)

The first, even laypeople are starting to not feel warm & fuzzy about this...
The second...well that's 2 fold issue...being that he would be connected to all the layoffs....
but factcheck.org is attempting to verify if this may or may not be a felony due to his formal declaration and law implications.
Of course Obama's campaign is emphasizing it is...

Tully Mars · Jul 13, 2012

rogue49 said: ↑

There are two BIG things starting to be tagged to Romney.
Reporters and Obama's campaign are starting to smell blood in the water.

The off-shore accounts & tax manipulation

The time when Romney resolved his ties with Bain (1999 vs 2003)

The first, even laypeople are starting to not feel warm & fuzzy about this...
The second...well that's 2 fold issue...being that he would be connected to all the layoffs....
but factcheck.org is attempting to verify if this may or may not be a felony due to his formal declaration and law implications.
Of course Obama's campaign is emphasizing it is...
Click to expand...

Factcheck.org is sticking with their original assessment that Romney left in 1999 to run the Olympics-

FactCheck.org : Romney’s Bain Years: New Evidence, Same Conclusion

rogue49 · Jul 13, 2012

Tully Mars said: ↑

Factcheck.org is sticking with their original assessment that Romney left in 1999 to run the Olympics-

FactCheck.org : Romney’s Bain Years: New Evidence, Same Conclusion
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Yep, and the Obama campaign is sticking with their claims that he didn't.
Those darn "socialists"...

Labels ("felon") and mud go both ways, and this muck seems to be sticking on Romney for now.

Tully Mars · Jul 13, 2012

Yeah maybe. I didn't think the the Dems were smart enough to learn how to swift boat someone but maybe.

redux · Jul 13, 2012

Romney is in full "containment" mode.

Just two week ago, two high level Romney campaign staff gave an interview to the right wing "news site" Brietbart News that the campaign would ignore the main stream media and focus their outreach through Brietbart, Drudge and other conservative outlets.

In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, Moffat and Alcivar discussed how websites like Breitbart and Drudge influence the way their campaign receives and delivers the news.

Moffat revealed, “I have two windows constantly up on my screen all day long, Twitter and the Drudge Report.”
Alcivar, who took a leave from the groundbreaking and influential Hynes Communications to work for the Romney campaign, sees a major shift in how the media works:

When this election is over, one of the lessons that will be learned by the mainstream media is that they no longer have a toe-hold on how Americans receive their news. Never before – in a way that has taken Democrats off stride – have we seen the confluence of an aggressive online community, led by Breitbart, and an aggressive campaign team not willing to cede an inch of ground to Democrats. This combination has created a new political reality. We no longer allow the mainstream media to define the political realities in America. The rise of Breitbart, Drudge and others, combined with an aggressive Romney campaign is a powerful tool in the arsenal of the conservative movement.
If I talk to Breitbart about an issue, thousands more will hear our message than if we give a quote to one of the hill rags.
Moffat agrees. He points to hiring Patrick Hynes as online consultant along with Alcivar as an indication of how important Romney considers the new media. “Lenny and Patrick were our first hires after we wrapped up the nomination.”
Alcivar: “Mitt knew there was a need for something outside the traditional communications team to meet the growing online center right audience. We can be faster and more nimble than the traditional communications wing of a campaign.”
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Just yesterday, Drudge floated a story that, according to inside sources, Condi Rice was at (or among) the top of the VP list. Drudge is good friends with Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades. Did Rhoades/Drudge plant the story to deflect from the Bains controversy? Hmmmm.

There are signs Romney’s campaign wanted to shift the political narrative.
Less than an hour before the story leaked to Drudge, Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades sent an email to supporters with the tantalizing subject line, "Mitt's VP."
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This is not something Romney can fix, particularly with Independents, through Brietbart and Drudge.

So today: Romney to give network interviews today.

Mitt Romney will hold interviews today with ABC, NBC, and CBS, network sources tell POLITICO.
The recorded interviews will take place later this afternoon, and are likely to air during the nightly news casts, though that could not be confirmed.
Developing...
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IMO, the Bain story will have legs for awhile and the Romney strategy of relying solely on those fringe "media" sites to get their message out, if they continue in that direction, will bite him in the ass more than once over the next few months.

Baraka_Guru · Jul 13, 2012

redux said: ↑

Romney is in full "containment" mode.

Just two week ago, two high level Romney campaign staff gave an interview to the right wing "news site" Brietbart News that the campaign would ignore the main stream media and focus their outreach through Brietbart, Drudge and other conservative outlets.

[...]

IMO, the Bain story will have legs for awhile and the Romney strategy of relying solely on those fringe "media" sites to get their message out, if they continue in that direction, will bite him in the ass more than once over the next few months.
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Damn...how insular can you get?

As a presidential candidate, that sounds like political suicide.

I understand that his campaign want to control the messages about them, but really? If the mainstream ain't gonna paint you in a good light, bias or no bias, what hope do you have?

Tully Mars · Jul 13, 2012

Baraka_Guru said: ↑

Damn...how insular can you get?

As a presidential candidate, that sounds like political suicide.

I understand that his campaign want to control the messages about them, but really? If the mainstream ain't gonna paint you in a good like, bias or no bias, what hope do you have?
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Dude you do not understand the the US political right or the GOP at all.

Baraka_Guru · Jul 13, 2012

Tully Mars said: ↑

Dude you do not understand the the US political right or the GOP at all.
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No, but I thought I understood American media. You know, the myth of the liberal media is supposed to urge the GOP criticize the media, not shrink from it.

It is a myth after all.

rogue49 · Jul 14, 2012

Baraka_Guru said: ↑

No, but I thought I understood American media. You know, the myth of the liberal media is supposed to urge the GOP criticize the media, not shrink from it.

It is a myth after all.
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It may have been once long ago...but now it is a myth.
The media is not "liberal" or "conservative"...unless you count blogs and message boards.
They are tabloid.

It's all about getting the numbers, and keeping the numbers.
And whatever they can do to splash a headline...to make people read.
They are now carnival barkers.

"See what we have here in the Freak House..."
"Watch the Strong man..."
"The death-defying Incredible Flying..."

You have to have a good filter to read media these days.
So the real question comes down to this...are they giving you "biased" material
or are YOU using a biased filter???

-------

As to Romney, of course he is insular...he always has been.
His whole style is this...read about how he related to others during his time as governor.
He didn't relate, he didn't click...he used his trusted insiders to act for him.
It's not bad...it's just his style.

Baraka_Guru · Jul 14, 2012

View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud3mMj0AZZk

Obama should crush Romney on principle alone, but I know that's not how American politics works.

Romney could very well be leading the country soon.

For eight years.

rogue49 · Jul 14, 2012

Baraka_Guru said: ↑

View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud3mMj0AZZk

Obama should crush Romney on principle alone, but I know that's not how American politics works.

Romney could very well be leading the country soon.

For eight years.
Click to expand...

Nah, while the newsmedia and pundits are trying to make this a horse race...it isn't.

Obama is up by a few percent points both nationally & in the battleground states. (and this is from fair-minded conservative sites...yes, they DO exist)
But it's the battleground states that REALLY matter, not the overall.

By the real numbers, it is shades of grey, there is no universal desire, just trends.
But in the U.S., because of its electorial system, it's a winner take all for each state.

As of today... (State, Obama/Romney, Lean - from RealClearPolitics)
Ohio 46.2 43.6 Obama +2.6
Virginia 47.5 44.5 Obama +3.0
Florida 46.2 45.3 Obama +0.9
Iowa 46.5 44.0 Obama +2.5
North Carolina 46.0 47.2 Romney +1.2
Colorado 47.2 44.2 Obama +3.0
Nevada 49.3 44.0 Obama +5.3
Missouri 43.5 46.5 Romney +3.0
Wisconsin 48.4 44.0 Obama +4.4
Michigan 46.5 44.7 Obama +1.8
Pennsylvania 47.4 39.6 Obama +7.8
New Hampshire 48.7 43.0 Obama +5.7

You can see that Romney is only leading in a few in comparison...and bad news for him, it's trending up for Obama.
Only Florida, which is worthwhile due to the amount of electorial votes has a serious chance for Romney to make headway.
But he'd have to turn around several others to even get to the needed 270 to win.
He's got his work cut out for him.

And right now, he's not doing as hot as he wants.
True or not, The Bain thing is starting to stick...as is the Foreign accounts thing...and finally for a strike-out, the Taxes thing.
And he's not helping his case by not clicking with his base or others on personality.
Nor not even coming up with a decent amount of promises or ideas that are his. (and we aren't even talking about details here)
He's avoiding his past, Governor or otherwise.

So unless, the Economy takes a HUGE dump again. (and right now it's holding or trending up...but not at the pace everyone would like)
Or Obama fucks up in a BIG way. (and he's a damn good speech maker, and his debate skills are exceptional)
I don't see it.

BTW, here are some electorial maps.
Real Clear Politics (right-leaning)
Pollster (left-leaning)
Five Thirty-Eight (true neutral stats maniac)

Five Thirty-Eight, he's insane at looking at all the numbers...which you can see in nice graphics on the right side on down.
And he's doesn't change the numbers by whim or quickly.
He also notes which polls trend left or right by bias, which are more accurate, and more

If the election were held now...by his numbers.
Obama
302.5
Romney
235.5

Yet the popular vote is just 50 to 48 Obama.
But it's the electorial game that counts...and Right now, Romney has got to go to work in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Right now, Obama has an 80% chance of winning.
Not good news for Romney.

I think the real battle will be for the House and Senate.
If the GOP wins the Senate, whoa nelly.
Can you say VETO??

Baraka_Guru · Jul 15, 2012

Derwood · Jul 18, 2012

Literally the ONLY thing that Romney can hang his hat on politically is the thing that he's running away from (Romneycare)

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