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Politics Obama - Actually doing a good job?

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by rogue49, Mar 10, 2012.

  1. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    like watching a tennis match... :p
     
  2. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    Not wanting tax increases is "so far right"? Wanting federal government spending equal to or less than revenues is "so far right"? And so it goes..., if I and others are "so far right", you can label it however you like - the problem you face is what are you going to do? I know what I am going to do, fight for those things I believe in..and so it goes.

    You/Democrats/Liberals can compromise if you guys want. If your principles involve compromise offer a few up. Here is one, make permanent the Bush tax rates, and I will stop asking for those rates to be made permanent. You get your compromise and I get the Bush tax rates. sounds like a win - win.
    --- merged: Jun 29, 2012 at 11:42 AM ---
    and a 90% re-election rate! So much for those polls. My guy in Congress is o.k., your guy is...(fill in the blank with the description of choice).

    When my Congress person stands firm and is unwilling "to cave" to liberal demands, he will have my unyielding support - I don't care if you don't approve. Congressional approval polls are of no value, Obama and the lamestream media play them up for their own reasons - grounded in diversion type tactics.
    --- merged: Jun 29, 2012 at 11:56 AM ---
    I recently paid $2.99 per gallon in South Carolina, there are places in California where the cost is $4.

    When global oil production is close to capacity, prices are more subject to higher volatility due to short-term blips in demand. Same for oil refinery capacity. capacity issues are manageable, and with proper management stability can be achieved.

    Alternatives can compensate for short-term capacity issues in oil and gas. Alternatives are managable....etc.....etc.

    We need a comprehensive energy policy that addresses the needs for stable economic growth. We do not have to be victims of "global markets" in oil.
    --- merged: Jun 29, 2012 at 11:58 AM ---
    Then enjoy.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 6, 2012
  3. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    No tax increase, no compromise! Your way or no way!

    Ten dollars of spending cuts for every one dollar of tax increases on the rich? Fuck, NO! (Grover Norquist would be proud!)

    It makes me almost long for the days of Ronald Reagan who understand the need to compromise (on taxes, social security, regulations, etc) for the greater good.

    Thank you for making my point, Ace, on how extreme your position really is.. Enjoy the Tea Party while it lasts!
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2012
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    Obama has done many things militarily and diplomatically that I support. If you read my posts involving Obama they mostly involve his domestic economic policy positions, and his lack of conviction. The irony is that if militarily and diplomatically he acted in a manner consistent with how he ran to get elected I would have issue in this area as well. Who would have thought Gitmo would still be operational?

    Also, I have no objection to issues like gay marriage or gays openly serving in the military. On those issues I actually thought he would have shown more leadership sooner.
    --- merged: Jun 29, 2012 at 12:15 PM ---
    I want the most efficient tax rates, why don't you? So yes, my way. It like, why settle for what is wrong?

    Show me the proposal. If the proposal simplifies the tax code and flatens the rates, i would support that. I am clear on what I want. Impliment the cuts first, simplify the tax code, and then let's look at the rates for needed increases. There is no room for compromise regarding how I want to address the issue. Now that as a given, what to stop you from matching your wants with mine? Is it your unwillingness to move?

    I don't hide my views. And, we will see what happens with the Tea Party, if most and growing numbers of Americans want to move in your direction the Tea Party will fade, otherwise it won't. We know what is at stake.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 6, 2012
  5. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    The 90% re-election rate: is that the average overall? The current ~17% approval rating is not much higher than the historical low of 11% at the end of 2011.

    Why so low? Could it be because of the obstructionism (aka spoiled-bratism) that has been going on largely because of the Tea Party members of Congress?

    What are the odds of a higher-than-average turnover in Congress in the next election in light of this?

    Volatility isn't reduced when there is excess capacity. Excess capacity is often the result of a drop in demand, rather than too many refineries being built or too much extraction going on. Short-term changes in demand fluctuate prices on both ends: high and low.

    That's the nature of volatility in global energy markets, especially during a global recession superimposed on the backdrop of economic regions such as BRIC. The issue isn't whether there is enough capacity or how that capacity is managed. The issue, as usual, is global demand.

    Renewable energy development should be one of the top priorities of any nation capable of developing them. Anything else is shortsighted. I agree, alternatives to fossil fuels will mitigate the volatility of energy markets, which are currently driven by non-renewable sources.

    It's difficult to sell politically, because people's daily lives are mostly tied into today's gas prices and this month's utilities bill. And any indication that energy might cost more down the road partly due to alternative energy initiatives, and many will be against it. This despite the even worse scenario of ridiculously high non-renewable prices that won't come down, whilst not having viable alternatives in place.

    This is a major long-term issue that should have been spearheaded more than a decade ago. Places like Germany and France got it a while ago in their own ways. I agree with the former, while am quite a bit worried about the latter.

    For starters, I don't know why you put global markets in quotation marks. The global market is an inevitable factor, and probably the number one influencer on the development of comprehensive energy policies and the technologies required to fulfill them.

    Again, Germany gets it. I hope that both the U.S. and Canada will get it too. North America worries me in this respect. The U.S. lacks a comprehensive energy policy and Canada is putting theirs through the wringer. Meanwhile, by the time 2050 rolls around, Germany will be a prime example of what to do (if they meet their goals), except they will have already done it.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2012
  6. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    The Republicans can ignore the "spoiled brats" when they want to and they did today by passing the $100+billion transportation/infrastructure bill that will ensure continued funding for existing highway/infrastructure construction jobs (which would have expired tomorrow creating potential significant job loss) as well as creating as many as 1 million new constructions jobs over the next few years.

    The vote in the House was 373-52, (with all the NOs being Republicans and Tea Party types led my Michelle Bachmann) and 74-19 in the Senate (all NOs Republican). It is a bi-partisan bill that was achieved through compromise - Democrats accepting streamlined environmental reviews and funneling more of the funds through the states (to give Republican governors the opportunity to take credit) and the Republicans backed off of their extreme offset provisions.

    It also has provisions included to prevent a doubling of interest rates on new student loans which would have expired tomorrow as well.

    This is how Congress should work, leaving the extremists on the sidelines.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  7. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I expect an increase turnover due to Tea Party candidates winning.:)

    When a commodity reaches a level of scarcity due to demand far exceeding supply (one cause of this condition would be a capacity problem) prices begin to reflect factors outside of normal supply and demand resulting in heightened price volatility. For example in the oil industry there is an expected geopolitical risk premium in the price of oil - when oil production is near capacity levels, this premium increases. Why? At capacity levels any small or big geopolitical problem that might impact oil supply could have a devastating impact on those purchasing oil - there is a tendency to want to hedge or even hoard in this circumstance.


    Historically this is not true. People, communities, societies often make short-term sacrifice or incur up-front costs for long-term benefit. In some cases it is done not knowing there will be a long-term benefit. Kennedy selling the nation to go to the moon comes to mind. Americans took this on and supported it not knowing if it could be done or if there would be any benefit other than national pride.


    I used quotes because of the rhetoric involving US dependency on foreign energy sources when we could and should be energy independent. I think your post spoke of "global markets" - I think our views on this concept differ.
    --- merged: Jun 29, 2012 at 4:45 PM ---
    True, it is not difficult to put a spoiled brat in his/her place. I am amazed Obama or others have such a difficult time with it. Wouldn't you prefer a President who could get on the phone, like Lyndon Johnson, and get some stuff done. Why can't you admit Obama was not ready to be President? And why can't you admit Obama's style interferes with his ability to get stuff done?

    I know when I go into a negotiation I am going to be tough, I am going to be an ass, I am going to be "in yo' face" arrogant (and i always give my wife fair warning in advance so she can avoid being embarrassed by my behavior, but she does love it when I save a few bucks here and there or otherwise get what we want) - you seem to take the position that I should just kneel and "kiss the ring" or something - what is that about?

    One final thing on compromise - there is a fine line between compromising and being a fool. How about you compromise first!:p
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 6, 2012
  8. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Wouldn't that be disastrous? ;)

    I know this. I implied it in my previous response. However, I'm not sure what you mean by "outside of normal supply and demand." What's outside of it? Are you talking about war, embargoes, trade wars, etc?

    Either way, the fact remains that the price of oil—whether by supply and demand or geopolitical factors—is responsible for the majority of the price of gasoline. The president of the United States has limited power and influence in terms of the week-to-week changes of this price.

    Seeking alternatives is another thing. That's a long-term strategy thing, not a thing that will fix the problem tomorrow or for the summer or even next year.

    Did Americans sacrifice much for the moon landing? What problems did it solve? What is America's current "moon landing project"? What problems will it solve?

    If you ask me, the moon landing was mostly the result of a nation in crisis—crisis of identity, superiority/inferiority, and fear of the Soviets. Sure there were some fringe benefits in terms of technology and jobs, etc., but what problem did it solve for the nation in a practical sense? (Maybe I'm just not up on American history/economics enough to realize it.)

    Energy independent like whom? What model should the U.S. follow? Germany?

    It's a long-term planning thing. Energy independence is difficult if not impossible to achieve.

    Consider France. Nearly 80% of their power is generated by nuclear; however, due to the nature of nuclear power, they don't have flexibility in terms of power generation and so have been forced into being the world's largest exporter of electricity.

    Furthermore, nuclear power is ruinously expensive, and so it's not a very practical avenue to follow if you aren't prepared to pay for it (government-wise). France has been at their strategy since the 80s to get to where they are (cheap electricity). Will the U.S. be able to model themselves after that? Should they?

    Germany is perhaps the better model. They have more flexibility in terms of development and exports, not to mention the fact that they have less to worry about in terms of accidents and disposing of nuclear waste.

    Either way, it's not very useful to put "global markets" in quotation marks because it's always going to be a factor. Energy independence is a bit of a pipe dream if you mean to say that the U.S. will exit out of global markets in terms of energy development and production. It's virtually impossible (not to mention that it isn't very ideal at all).
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2012
  9. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I know I am on the edge of you taking some trivial point out of context - I hope you take that into consideration here.

    Speculation or excessive speculation is outside of normal supply and demand. On the supply side a supplier can manipulate the market to create an emotional response or speculation in a market and drive up sales or prices. In Marketing 101 there is the lesson of the grocer who has an abundance of canned peas, they don't sell on day one. Then he places a restriction - limit two per customer, and he sells out on day two. This is outside of normal supply and demand. On the demand side, consumers can manipulate the market creating speculation in obvious ways outside of normal supply and demand forces - the Dutch Tulip Bubble of 1637 is the first most widely known account of this. In normal healthy markets we would not experience wide swings in supply or demand

    It is true with oil and gas, I don't dispute that.

    Oil production is subject to capacity. When production is near capacity levels adding new capacity takes time and investment - capacity can expand in a orderly fashion or it can expand in a erratic fashion. This is controllable. Transporting and refining has the same issues in this regard and are also controllable. Sustained and consistent economic growth is best achieved when the supply of energy and pricing is stable and predictable. I doubt you disagree.

    My point is that a leader like Kennedy sold his vision and people bought into it. No President has sold the US public on wind, solar or other truly innovative alternative energy plans. When we get a leader who can make the case we will see progress at a much faster rate. I disagree with your premise that we won't be willing to make the sacrifice.

    I was born in 1960 and was 9 years old when we landed on the moon. I do not recall a crisis of identity, superiority/inferiority or fear of the Soviets. I remember almost everything coming to a stop as we watched Armstrong take those historic steps. And I remember Tang as the greatest drink in the world and was devastated to learn it was not created for the space program - it was like being told Santa Clause...

    I expect the US to lead.

    I know that a commodity like oil is fungible, so is water but there is no global market for fresh drinking water. The water that I drink from my faucet has nothing to do with the water you drink from yours. So should it be with energy. I envision a world where a persons in Africa, New York, or Australia have sustainable sources for all of their energy needs without dependence on others - perhaps micro-markets rather than global markets. What is your vision, more and bigger concentrated sources of energy that get distributed by some centralized source? Again, I think our views of "global markets" differ.
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2012
  10. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Looks like Obama is on a roll this week...

    Obamacare saved
    Student Loan percentages kept low
    Europe made some headway
    and this below

    Oh well, there's always next week... :rolleyes:

     
  11. Tully Mars

    Tully Mars Very Tilted

    Location:
    Yucatan, Mexico
    Romney's fund raising is going through the roof so in a way he's won on this issue too. The interesting part I see is he's now getting donations from small donors and not just ultra wealthy and corporations. This has lit a fire under the right.
     
  12. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    If Romney keeps the focus on this issue, he will have to explain repeatedly how he supported a federal mandate (and urged Obama to include a mandate in an op ed he wrote) in 2009.



    I dont think he wants that out there or taking the focus off of jobs/economy (which is his only hope to attract the swing voters in the center.
     
  13. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    What is a "normal healthy market"? One without speculation? Hardly.

    Oil trades on the open market. The market is subject to speculation. Are you suggesting something different? Are we back to the Venezuelan model? Should we simply ban speculation? I don't think so. Speculation plays an essential role in markets, as it helps with liquidity and offsetting risk. Maybe you support banning speculation in oil only? You're a free-marketer though. I don't think you'd support that.

    As a free-marketer, you should simply weather volatility, shouldn't you?

    Supply tends to be actively managed as it is. I'm not sure what can be done on the stability front regarding prices (if we're still talking about speculation). As for demand for actual consumers of oil, there will be volatility based on a number of factors, one of which is limitations with supply. This is something we need to live with, which is why alternatives are key.

    Oh, come on. Space shuttles and manned moon landings are way sexier than wind turbines and run-of-the-river hydroelectricity.

    To me the moon landing seems like such a distraction. It seems to me that it was simply a ploy to get the public to focus on something instead of other problems. Otherwise, it simply seems frivolous. What was the direct net benefit to the average American by putting a man on the moon? National pride? Wonder? Did it help pay bills? Did it give them better access to health care? Did it help them retire sooner? I think your example of the moon landing is naive if not misguided.

    Quaint. Really.

    Well, it's dropping the motherfucking ball. I've already hinted at this already, but now let me lay it out for you: the U.S. isn't leading.

    As of 2010 (I couldn't quickly find more recent numbers), the EU produces double what the U.S. produces in renewable energy. China produces three quarters more than the U.S. The U.S. barely produces more than Brazil. Germany, despite its much smaller size, produces more than a quarter of what the U.S. produces. (Germany has less than 4% the land mass as the U.S., if you are keeping track.)

    The U.S. has one thing going for it: it leads in renewable energy investment. However, is it enough? Will there be continued support for it? Will there be a comprehensive energy policy in place to encourage continued development?

    The way it looks, places like Germany, China, and even India will put the U.S. to shame if it doesn't figure out a way to keep moving forward.

    I'm not sure what you think of "global markets." It sounds to me like you underestimate their significance. Germany hasn't. France hasn't. (Also, there is a global market for water.)

    Energy is energy, yes. But the trick is to produce it at a low enough cost so that it's affordable. The other trick is to keep the supply stable. The two are often tied together (remember France). Oil will eventually be too expensive and its supply too unstable. It's inevitable. Some think this is so far in the future as to be inconsequential. I'm in the other camp that thinks peak oil is already among us. The only things preventing severe shocks resulting from peak oil are recessions and renewable energy development.

    This is shaping up to be one of the best elections evar!
     
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2012
  14. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Ironically enough, found on Fox News' website.
    And I heard announced on Fox News' TV broadcast this morning. (I almost immediately walked away, thinking it was just another...)

    So, I know he's going to take the credit...now does Obama deserve the credit???

     
  15. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I see differences between "speculation" and "investing" or "hedging". I would not stop a person from "speculating" in a market, but if "speculation" becomes a dominate or materially influential factor in a market - I believes it is disruptive to normal market operations and has mostly negative market consequences.

    Yes. If a market more or less gets hijacked by speculators, it is best to wait it out or use hedge positions to manage the volatility brought on by speculation.

    There have been long periods of time with relatively stable oil/energy prices. When these conditions have been true we have seen greater industrial production and greater gains in living standards.

    Have you been to the Hoover Damn?

    [​IMG]


    How about Niagra Falls?

    [​IMG]

    Sexy comes in many forms. What we lack is visionary leadership in this era.
     
  16. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Yes, one is gambling, while the other is, well, investing.

    Gambling is quite disruptive in many different ways.

    It's difficult to plan for the unpredictable though, isn't it?

    When were these periods? Do you think we will see the same conditions that these periods saw? Consider these past periods with regards to finding new oil fields, building new capacity, and a past economy with characteristics that will not likely be seen again.

    No.

    Several times.

    That's too bad. I live in Ontario not far from Quebec. I've also visited BC several times. I don't see the same lack of leadership in this regard.

    Hydroelectricity in Canada - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Canada and the U.S. are certainly different places.
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2012
  17. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    The Republican visionary energy policy

    [​IMG]
    --- merged: Jul 26, 2012 4:15 AM ---
    Or the sexier (?) version

    [​IMG]

    2012 -- new bodies, same old vision.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 2, 2012
  18. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    No it isn't. Your question depends on one's perspective. It is a given that there is uncertainty. However, in many cases what is uncertain has limited possibilities. For example, for where I am there is uncertainty concerning tomorrows weather - but given what I know (knowledge - historical patterns, recent patterns, known record highs and lows etc.), it is simple for me to plan for the possible outcomes. for tomorrow I will be prepared for high temps in the range of 80 to 100, possible rain. From a long term point of view, I have purchased insurance for fire/wind/hail, I have drainage to minimize the exposure to flood, I have trimmed trees, etc, etc, etc.

    Is your perspective based on simply being a victim to circumstance? Or que Sera Sera?





    Majority of the 20th century prior to 1970.

    Yes.
    --- merged: Jul 26, 2012 at 11:50 AM ---
    Oil is abundant, cheap and efficient. We need to maximize the use of this resource while making incremental improvements to environmental consequences and as we develop other sources of energy. I think this more accurately reflects the Republican party vision. What is the vision of your party?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 2, 2012
  19. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    I thought we were talking about rampant speculation in the market, not the weather or Doris Day.

    And I would suggest that it's the free-marketer fabulist who craves que sera sera.

    If you find it easy to plan around the deep problems around speculation in the market, then perhaps you should write a book.

    I do recognize the difference between speculation and investing, but when speculation gets out of hand, even the investors can get burned. This is partly why unregulated markets are unsustainable.

    Ah, you mean before the vast majority of China's and India's economic booms. Interesting.

    I'd ask how, but I suspect you'd only want to talk about the weather.

    I, on the other hand, cannot see how this could ever be the case. Maybe we'll see the same economic conditions that happened in the 19th century, because, you know, they happened.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2012
  20. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Just as a point of fact, the abundant and cheap oil is still benefiting from federal subsidies to the tune of $4 billion/year and has been for nearly 100 years.

    [​IMG]

    Just another example of government helping business.

    But isn't 90+ years of help enough?