Thought Exercise - real unemployment

For the time being
I can only add this. Statistics clearly show women are lagging behind in reemployment. The US hasn't seen unemployment for women this low since the 1980s. The women are staying home dealing with children, schooling, and COVID-19.

I don't know what the drop is from 2019 and 2020.

There are numerous articles on the net.

 

The "real" unemployment rate is much higher than the "official" unemployment rate used by the Dept of Labor/Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the measure needs a significant overhaul.

BLS currently has six measure of the current unemployment rate: the "official" measure (U-3) and five alternative measures.

U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; and
U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization​

The U-3 unemployment rate is generally the only rate the public hears about or sees in government news releases and media reports.

From the above link, the "official U-3 unemployment rate last month was 6.3%; the real rate is probably somewhere between the U-5 rate (7.4%) and closer to the U-6 rate (11.1%). At the worst of the pandemic, the U-6 rate was at 23% or nearly 1 out of 4 workers in the US were unemployed.

 

I am sure that unemployment is much higher than those statistics. Usually this time of year after a Presidential change to a different party, they want to "correct" the numbers so they can say they improved them later on.

Covid screwed up my job plans, as I did want to take some time off after my last job, but not this long. But, I haven't cared to even look or apply for any indoor job in the past 12 months. I don't really want to wear my P100 respirator indoors everywhere due to a airborne virus, but I did have to wear one sometimes at my previous job... It just isn't worth it until after I get vaccinated.

And my attitude towards jobs is pretty much summed up in the Office Space movie. Although I look at the YouTubers, OnlyFan girls, bitcoin miners, and corrupt politicians making millions and think why should I get up at 7am and get home at 6pm 250 days a year just to end up with a few extra dollars at the end of the year...

And the weird thing is that while I don't spend lots of money, I don't really know if I am "rich" or "poor". Too many people brag about the money they make, but end up living paycheck to paycheck. Most of my expenses are to insurance companies, even though I do fear the unknown bad event or accident that wipes out any savings and investments I do have.

 

their shouldnt be a difference in "real" and "official"

 

I would guess that there are plenty of 60+ year olds who got a taste of retirement and realized they might not have that much time left and want to get out of the work life. And for some reason the stock market didn't crash, so companies have some capital to try and expand. Now, many jobs might not be coming back right away, but I would guess that there are also a lot of deferred plans that will now be green lit.

 

Thats an interesting type of fellowship.
During my fellowship I was certainly employed, and I had many bosses as well as structured supervisory and teaching responsibilities.
My activities by the hour, day and week were largely determined by others.
And I received regular formal evaluations from the program director.
One thing we have in common though is it was the worst paying real job I ever had!
I worked my tail off, crazy hours, and got paid very little.
Internship and residency don’t pay very much and then I took a pay cut for fellowship!

 

mommy :

I did two postdocs, and I'd say they ranged between those experiences. At USC I was in a "non-traditional" post-doc where I honestly ram about 70% of my advisor/boss' lab and then had specific research obligations that were centered around start-up company support, not publication. I wasn't pursuing tenure-track professorships from that vantage point. I was in am official relationship with the university and I had health insurance and I think I received a W2 tax form.

Afterwards, I did a post doc at the national lab and was still working on start up companies. I was a subcontractor reputed through a company that essentially existed only for that purpose. I received a W-2 tax form, but at work was technically a subcontract employee. We were highly expendable, but because the national lab was itself a subcontractor to the federal government it was a pretty secure job. Compared to other national labs, the retention rate of post docs going full time employee was and I think is very high.

I think that job was only available for maybe 3 or so years before you had to either go full time or go elsewhere.

Levels of support ranged by your line of management and division, but most of the time we were treated with false equivalence. When it was convenient we were near-equal experts and I think I was given maybe 3 or 5 False Management Titles (Project Lead: Environmental Reactivity, Group Lead: Kinetic Measurements) that had no reality in the org chain, had no salary increase or real authority.

It was a useful experience. At the national lab we were underpaid, but compared to the university we were paid well.

I eventually went full time for about 5 years, and then realized I was miserable.

I know it's a little like a broken record, but the reality is that during that entire period I was experiencing severe alcohol use disorder and co-occurring mental health challenges that I was more or less ignorant of. I don't know if I would have enjoyed it more bad I gotten into recovery then. People make good money in a community with a low cost of living and a job with reasonably low stress.

 

I don't know a lot about job hunting today.
A friend asked me, or was telling me about her daughters job search after college and how disheartening it is to submit aps to the algorithm, actually layers of algorithms.

She mentioned who she was trying to get on with, a used architectural element store...aka junk shop with cool and curious stuff of many types, a recycler of sorts.

I said, just go there and ask for an interview !
Show your face ! Give off your positive enthusiastic vibe !
So, she did. Got the job no prob.

I know that can't possibly work in tons of situations but if it's at all possible that's what I'd do and what I have done all my working life.
I work with 5 full time and one part time co workers including the shop owner and we all depend on each other. Our skills overlap but we are all best at certain aspects.
I have no understanding of working in giant corporate situations. Only work where what we do ends up as actual phisical reality. Meaning if you need a railing or fireplace surround, we make what your designer wants for you, and install it. No chance to hide it if it brakes or dosn't fit.
In my world if you can't build it right or do your part in the build correctly your useless at best and generate lots of extra work at worst.
If we have a deadline to install then we make it happen if it takes till midnight the day before.
You can't hide with only 5 people. You can't drop the ball cause it can crush your foot or a coworkers foot literally.
There's just no way to float a bunch of politics with just 5 people. We aren't perfect but our individual shortcomings outweigh our ability and loyalty to each other and the shop as a whole. I could draft on paper, cut weld grind and do finishing work as well as install. That's all the jobs in the whole shop except billing and accounting.
I'm not sure how you maintain that sence of value and purpose in a giant organization. I don't know how you gain a feeling of satisfaction from reams of words and numbers. Seems like most of all that just floats off into the eather and disipates into non existence like the data that was on the hard drive when the power brick fell out of the socket.

I don't know if that sheds light or helps but to boil it down I'd suggest looking at very small working situations. So, very small independent organizations.