Politics The Probe

i read today that Trumps approval rating is at an all time high..... I personally think that after all this impeachment stuff will get him reelected..

 

Trump's approval rating is at an all time high on one poll.

On an average of all major polls, he is still deep underwater.

FiveThirtyEIght: 51.9% disapprove -- 43.7% approve
Real Clear Politics: 51.8% disapprove -- 45.2% approve

The net negative approval is significant. In the above two average of polls, Trump is at a net -6 to -8.

Obama was only in the mid-to-upper 40s in approval at the same point in running for reelection but his disapproval was also in the mid-to-upper 40s so his net was at -1 at the worst.

 

National polls are meaningless when it comes to re-election and the electoral college. And while I still think there are only one or two outcomes that net Trump a win, it isn't going to be a slam dunk for the Democrat to win either.

While I wasn't a huge Hillary supporter, I felt more confident that she was going to win (even with all of her manufactured baggage) than any of the current candidates. The Trump campaign in 2016 was an unorganized mess. This time they are already running a national campaign with lots of money and super-pacs behind it. And I wouldn't be surprised if the foreign actors would get involved again, but a little more secretively this time. They might not worry as much as they were about a Hillary Presidency, but they are enjoying seeing the US in the mess we are in and not strong enough to defend ourselves.

 

Yep. National polls are meaningless in head-to-head match-ups of presidential candidates but national polls do have merit if they are issue oriented and provide a sense of how voters feel about particular issues or about particular candidates.

There are some match-up polls (Trump vs Biden/Sanders/Warren/Buttigieg) in key swing states...

Michigan
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

These are the three traditional Democratic states that Trump won by less than one percent that turned the 2016 election.

In all of the above, Trump is losing to both Biden and Bernie but this early in the campaign, they dont have much meaning.

 

Here is an interesting poll where you can mouse over any state and see Trump's job approval numbers; in most swing states, he is underwater (more disapprove than approve), in some cases by significant numbers that should worry Team Trump.

Donald Trump: Job Approval, Registered Voters, January 20, 2017 — February 4, 2020

But again, it is still way to early to take any poll to seriously.

 

Have we (in the broad general sense) became so
jaded,
unethical,
and dishonest,
to make Shyster Trump's transgressions acceptable?

What does that tell the rest of the world?

 

That Americans are the idiots they always suspected we were but never had the hard proof?

 

How about his tax returns? If he is "under audit" for four years the system is broken.

 

Trump's questionable activities will be analized by numerous historians and political scientists for years. Unfortunately that very likely won't result in legal actions against the culprits.

I'm hoping that Shyster Trump will get nailed for fraud. Just compare the numbers he presents to potential investors to the numbers he reports to the IRS and other tax agencies.

 

Also known as The Gish Gallop.

 

Terry Pratchett always liked the expression "a lie can get around the world before the truth can get it's boots on"

 

Keep piling it on until you smother them.

Or an old expression, slightly modified:
If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, bury them in bullshit.