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Politics The 2016 US Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by ASU2003, Mar 23, 2015.

  1. Shadowex3

    Shadowex3 Very Tilted

    You think the string pullers are different people?
     
  2. Derwood

    Derwood Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    Columbus, OH
    Somewhat. They're all mega rich, multi-national types, but they value different things
     
  3. Shadowex3

    Shadowex3 Very Tilted

    True. There's the absurdly rich multinational megacorporation shareholders that want to strip me of all my rights and force me into wage slavery for jesus, and then there's the absurdly rich multinational megacorporation shareholders that want to strip me of all my rights and force me into slightly higher wage slavery with slightly better insurance to fight the patriarchy.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  4. Tully Mars

    Tully Mars Very Tilted

    Location:
    Yucatan, Mexico
    Sounds about right.
     
  5. Street Pattern

    Street Pattern Very Tilted


    Yeah, but hundreds of different people, perhaps as many as a thousand, have tried unsuccessfully to become president. Only 43 have succeeded (Obama is #44, but that counts Cleveland twice).

    And if we're only counting modern times (say, 1945 to the present), only 12 have, and three of those (Truman, Johnson, Ford) didn't get to office by election.

    That leaves nine who ascended through an election since World War II. And of those nine, one-third of them were elected after losing before.

    I think that's enough to demonstrate that a past loss is not fatal.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2015
    • Like Like x 2
  6. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
  7. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    It's a crap shoot...it's whoever the media decides NOT to pound on week after week.

    There's a reason that HC isn't doing anything media oriented...
    She doesn't need to be known, she doesn't need to stand out...and the media is looking for ANY trip up or controversy.

    The others, they need the attention...so they take the risk.
     
    • Like Like x 2
  8. Lindy

    Lindy Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    Nebraska
    I purposely left out anyone that couldn't get nominated by either of the major parties. Could probably make a case that Teddy Roosevelt, Henry Wallace, Strom Thurmond and a couple of others were serious candidates even if not viable candidates.

    Johnson and Truman were re-elected as incumbents. Well, not really re-elected, since they weren't elected to the office when they first entered... but the voters did elect to retain them in office, which should count for something.:)

    Not fatal perhaps, but a life-threatening wound.

    Two-thirds of that one-third:rolleyes: that you cite only managed to be elected with an incumbent's advantage.

    In the 17 presidential elections held since WWII Richard Nixon is the only one to, after losing, win an election without the advantages of incumbency.

    So while a loss may not be fatal to a loser's prospects, it does tell you which way to bet.

    I'd happily give 10-1 odds on any amount that I could cover to anyone who wants to bet on Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain, Bob Dole, Mitt Romney, or Michael Dukakis winning the 2016 Presidential Election.

    Any takers?
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. Street Pattern

    Street Pattern Very Tilted

    What? I think you missed my examples, other than Nixon.

    Reagan was a very serious but losing candidate in 1976, and won as a non-incumbent in 1980. George H. W. Bush was a very serious but losing candidate in 1980, and won as a non-incumbent in 1988. Admittedly, he was VP, but that's usually more of a burden than a benefit.

    I thought we got to this question because of Hillary Clinton. Her prior loss was in the primaries, not the general election.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2015
    • Like Like x 1
  10. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    I leave the country for a few weeks and lots of people decided to run for President I guess... It was really nice to get away from US politics for a while and see that this foreign country puts their politicians on the spot, televises their debates, and lets the public ask questions to their representatives on a TV show weekly.



    One of the people listed below will be the President in 594 days...

    Confirmed Democrats:
    Hillary Clinton
    Bernie Sanders
    Andrew Caffrey
    Willie Carter
    Doug Shreffler
    Micheal Steinburg
    Robby Wells
    Martin O'Malley
    Morrison Bonpasse

    Confirmed Republicans:
    Ted Cruz
    Mark Everson
    Rand Paul
    Marco Rubio
    Dr. Ben Carson
    Carly Fiorina
    Lindsey Graham
    Mike Huckabee
    Rick Perry
    George Pataki
    Rick Santorum
    Skip Andrews
    Kerry Bowers
    Dale Christensen
    John Dummett Jr.
    Mark Everson
    Chris Hill
    Michael Kinlaw
    Michael Petyo
    Brian Russel
    Ole' Savior ;)
    Michael Bickelmeyer


    Confirmed Libertarian:
    Marc Feldman
    Darryl Perry
    Steve Kerbel
    Cecil Ince

    Confirmed Green:
    John Ferguson
    Willita D. Bush
    Kent Mesplay


    Confirmed Independent:
    Paul Chehade
    Mark Dutter
    Martin Hahn
    David Hendrix
    David Holcomb
    Lynn Sandra Kahn
    Bishop Julian Lewis Jr.
    Mark Pendleton
    Scott Smith
    Tami Stainfield
    Samm Tittle


    Confirmed Reform Party:
    Ken Cross


    Confirmed Constitution Party:
    Chad Kopple


    Confirmed Socialist:
    Dean Capone



    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Possible Democrats:
    Lincoln Chafee
    Joe Biden
    Elizabeth Warren
    Al Gore
    Jerry Brown
    Jim Webb
    Barbara Boxer
    Andrew Cuomo
    Kirsten Gillibrand
    Deval Patrick
    Michael Bennet
    Evan Bayh
    Mark Warner
    Julian Castro
    Cory Booker
    Claire McCaskill
    Dan Malloy
    Russ Feingold
    Brian Schweitzer
    Jay Nixon
    John Kerry
    Amy Klobuchar


    Possible Republicans:
    Jeb Bush
    Scott Walker
    Chris Christie
    Condoleeza Rice
    Paul Ryan
    Bob McDonald
    Donald Trump
    John Kasich
    Bobby Jidal
    Rob Portman
    Rick Snyder
    John Bolton
    Peter King
    Jim Gilmore
    Bob Ehrlich
    Mike Pense


    Possible Green:
    Jill Stein
    Cynthia McKinney
    Darryl Cherney


    Possible Libertarian:
    Gary Johnson


    Possible Independent:
    Colin Powell
    Dennis Michael Lynch
    Matt Gonzalez
     
  11. Shadowex3

    Shadowex3 Very Tilted

    Out of pure curiosity at the name I looked up Ole Savior, he's actually a fairly left wing former Minnesota Democrat-Farm-Labor candidate that's switched to running as a Republican for... reasons. I make no claims as to truthfulness but I once read someone describe debates in some EU nation I can't recall which basically amounted to locking the candidates in a room and recording them fight it out. Sounds like the sort of thing we could use, as well as the regular public grilling ASU's described.
     
  12. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North
    I liked Bernie Saunders idea that instead of waiting until the primaries are over for the two sides to debate they should start debating now.
    He said he would love to debate the Republican candidates and I would love to see that, he would rip them to shreds.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  13. Derwood

    Derwood Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    Columbus, OH
    Has Jeb Bush not officially declared yet?
     
  14. redravin

    redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

    Location:
    North


    Nope, he's still playing the game of "I'm exploring my options" because that means he can continue to coordinate with the super pacs.
    It's bullshit and everyone knows it.
     
  15. Street Pattern

    Street Pattern Very Tilted

    Ted Cruz spooked all the other ones into announcing. Jeb is getting flak because he's the only one left on the traditional schedule of "not really running" until much later. He's either wisely keeping a steady hand, or foolishly making himself a target.
     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2015
  16. Lindy

    Lindy Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    Nebraska
    I don't think we are really in disagreement. I'm just looking at nominees on the general election ballot. You're taking a wider view of candidates in the primaries and at the party nominating conventions. I can't fault anything you said.
    It would be hard for a woman to get elected President. What would you think of the chances of a transgendered Hillary? There's still enough time, I think, and Caitlyn Jenner shows how quickly a transgendered person, given good handling, can attract a following.;)
     
  17. Shadowex3

    Shadowex3 Very Tilted

    I think Bailey Jay proved that already a while back, but admittedly there's... yknow... a little bit of difference in the target demographics with that.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. Lindy

    Lindy Moderator Staff Member

    Location:
    Nebraska
    I was speaking firmly tongue in cheek, but I dunno, Hillary seems to be willing to do pretty much anything to be President.;)
     
  19. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
  20. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    Maybe Hillary just needs to have an affair with Monica. Bill won't be able to say anything, and it would give her some credibility with the GLBT community...
     
    • Like Like x 1