It's the Economy, stupid - Languishing & Lingering after the Great Recession

And the tectonic plates are moving...

The flux of big oil is changing the economic dynamic...different winners & losers.
It will be interesting in the next few.

How Oil’s 4-Year Low Is Moving Stocks, Bonds, FX and CDS

 

I always watch Warren Buffett. I even own a small part of him through Berkshire B. The stockholders' meeting in Omaha is a hoot.
When Berkshire had to divest UP due to the purchase of Burlington Northern, I bought UP. Buffett didn't sell UP for any reasons other than regulatory. Over a couple of months, I bought two thousand shares at roughly $32/share.

Cheaper oil means more is pumped and used. And transported, in the USA and Canada, by the railroads. Pipelines too, but pipelines are too political. And lower prices mean that those transport costs for oil and all other things are reduced. More profits made by all transport vendors. I didn't buy Amazon, eBay, or any of those guys when I probably should have, but all that "stuff" needs to be delivered, and I do own FedEx and UPS both. Would love to have DeutschePost/DHL, but I am already too heavily into transportation.

 

Yep @Lindy ...and the Big Oil saga continues...

• Oil at $40 Possible as Market Transforms Caracas to Iran
• OPEC Inaction Spurs Survival of Fittest as Oil Below $65
• China Winning in OPEC Price War as Hoarding Accelerates
• Iran Wary of Oil ‘Shock Therapy’ as OPEC Vies for Market

These are all from Bloomberg, which is fairly non-biased and keeps a quick reporting of the pulse of the international economy...better than most, IMHO

But I'm happy for the little guy, for better gas prices...and other businesses, which can leverage that too for better margins and hopefully reflect the savings in retail costs.
However, I'm also hoping that this allows the "safe" removal of Ethanol from normal gas...which will allow Corn, etc. commodities to normalize, come down and reduce food costs (Milk, Meats, Sugars...any corn based food or feed)

Looks like the US, China & Europe will come out of this the big winners...
And our current "not so nice guys" will come out poorer...Russia, Iran, Venezuela.
Question is this...will it help stabilize the world economy and get the boat rockers in line? (or will it destabilize things...and make them react like a rat in a corner??)
I'm hoping the former...
But in any way, shape or form...I'm glad Big Oil is getting hit...they've been gaming the glutted system for way too long.

I just hope it's not a case of "Better watch out, you may get what you wished for"

 

Canada will likely belong on the poorer list.

 

I don't think so...I think you all will still gain like the US, from the fracking methods and other oil resources.
You'll likely become a bigger resource player for Europe and such.
Canada is gaining momentum from what I've been seeing.

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@Baraka_Guru , I think Canada will be riding the same wave as the US, including in manufacturing and customer service, etc.

Manufacturing in U.S. Grew More Than Projected in November

The global market is starting to realize the difference and capabilities of North American firms.
lean, mean but skilled and efficient...and a bit less corrupt in comparison to the lowest common denominator firms in Asia and such , IMHO

Canada does it the same, just nicer.

 

Canada is by and large a resources and services economy.

As for oil, I think they're waiting for when it's time to push the panic button on the oil sands. The methods for extracting oil from the sands is much higher than that found elsewhere, like the Middle East and Russia. Below a certain price of oil, and investment and production could dry up.

Overall, the loonie will take a hit, making it difficult for exporters (both in manufacturing and services). The only benefit is short-term to consumers, really. But when the long-term effects take hold, we'll need to make some painful adjustments.

I'm not so certain a low price of oil is a long-term situation. If the global economy continues to grow, it's only a matter of time before it hits high levels again.

 

Well, at least at the start...I believe the US was just trying to get more oil with the new fracking method...then it took off.
So they gained the momentum, just by stumbling into it...but now, the US may be figuring out how to leverage it more.

Like I said, it's been glutted and overpriced by speculators for years anyway...the bubble was bound to burst, the fracking method just pushed it faster.
And unfortunately, for Russia and Venezuela...they assumed that it would just keep going at a high price. (I wouldn't be surprised either if the first trader to get it over $100 had connections with them...or it could have been just ego)

China is simply just taking advantage of the "fire sale"...they've always been oil hungry. (just not as "good" of relationship or contracts as Europe had)

Saudi Arabia may the biggest manipulator here...they have decided to throw many of the other OPEC nations under the bus,
since they can survive "low waters" better than others...they're likely hoping that it hurts, if not kills off, competitor nations...and if they're a part of OPEC...so be it.

IMHO, it's really not a government thing...it's a "management" thing...the mindset has become, minimize the employee costs...so management always uses as the excuse, "the economy"
Except that the economy is actually doing good...but that's their rationale. The Great Recession really has some cascading affects.
I'd say it will be another 5 years before it kicks in to the employees' advantage...and the employers' disadvantage. (but it's already started...and gaining momentum)
It's just that government unfortunately takes slower to catch up. (they do things in extremes anyway...and the pendulum is slow...feast or famine...it never is balanced)

It will go the other way...it's just that you're going to have to wait awhile if you're in the same role.

 

The future's so bright...I gotta wear shades

Job and wage surge...best since 2012
The Running of the Bears: Jobs Surge Sways Even Eco-Pessimists

About fuckin' time...now the question is how much is this going to translate into people power...
and how long is it going to last?

But I think the US management may be irrationally surprised that people actually buy more when the have money, don't feel burdened, feel stable...and are happy.
Who would have thought???
U.S. Stocks Climb as Payrolls Report Boosts Optimism in Economy

 

Obama is the best president since Clinton.

/Obamanomics?
/Obamonomics?
/Barackonomics?

 

The Story of "O"

 

I just hope he's not the best president before Clinton.

 

Since Reagan? If we're being honest?

 

The momentum is starting to go our way...including wages and more job opportunities.

Retail Sales Rise as U.S. Job Gains, Drop in Fuel Pay Dividends

Let's hope it gets to the point that the people start having the leverage and power instead of the corporation. (at least swing that way for awhile...)
Food prices going down
Utility prices going down
Cheaper products
Better wages
Better benefits

I think the public needs a bit going their way.
I'm pro-biz...but it's been too much on the corp side for some time
Let's see the mgmt sweat and bend over backwards a bit. (not suffer like we did...but cater to our needs some...that would be nice for a change)

A little balance in the world.

** Oh yeah, does Obama get credit for this??? Or is it only when things go bad?
I know, I know...he doesn't really control the market. (but people act like he does...)

 

And the good news continues...and now more globally

Rising Salaries Give Kuroda, Yellen and Carney Reasons to Smile

I hope the wave catches me too.
I need it.
As I'm sure most do.

Hell, if this goes on much longer we'll have to close this thread or change the title.

 

BTW...and FYI...there's an interesting series by the Washington Post about the lingering affects of the Great Recession.
You may find it interesting.
Here are the first two articles...

• Why America’s middle class is lost
• The devalued American worker

Now, my question is this...I know what's going on in the US...but can anyone tell me what it's like in other countries??
The US is currently doing better economically than much of the rest of the world,
but it hasn't translated to the public as well...and its system doesn't have the same "safety net" as other countries. (good or bad, worse or better)

Any input from non-Americans??
Is your grass greener?
What's up with your area and lives?

 

Another piece of good news...ok, this is getting old.

U.S. Industrial Output Surpasses Prerecession Peak

Now if we can just get that to translate to the average Joe (I hate sounding like a broken record...but it DOES work for the GOP)