It's the Economy, stupid - Languishing & Lingering after the Great Recession

It's not that I don't believe you. I say grass is dying and you point to the greener grass. I know there is greener grass.

What about the grass that's dying?

 

Y'know...it was just a few years ago when everyone was saying, "Why can't the US be like Europe??"

Now, they're all like the US is a beacon and everyone else is a drag on it...according to IMF specs - Link

My...how petty & fickle these economists are...you'd think they're a bunch of TV pundits.
Flip-flop much???

But I have faith that the US Congress is going to muck it up somehow and waste the momentum and resources.
So, no worries for long, rest of the world...we'll be down there again soon, just like you.

 

The picture is hardly rosy. Despite U.S. growth over the past few years, wages are still barely keeping up with inflation.

So while the U.S. economy is growing, it's mostly to the benefit of the wealthy. Again.

This isn't great or fantastic news. It's simply a return to the status quo.

 

Well, if they could get the crazies out of the House...then they'd pass some new laws benefiting the typical citizen.
But right now, it's all about the 1%
At least they're starting to close the tax loopholes.

It's likely going to be a whole different story in 2016, when all the groundhog Dems come out of their holes.
It's worrying the GOP like mad.

 

Oil prices plunge as production rises, fueling concern in OPEC

And finally, the oil comes tumbling down...stuff has been inflated for way too long.
Especially after that one trader made a $100/barrel bid just to "do it".
And even years ago, I saw LOTS of huge oil tankers just lingering in the Panama Canal, waiting for the price to rise.
We've been over-producing for years.
And the price has been paid on the backs of people...driving...and thru trucking costs.

Now if they can just break the Ethanol consortium...and get rid of it...and allow corn and sugar prices to come back down. (which affects food prices)
The average joe may just catch a break.

 

That doesn't bode well for Canadian oil producers. Many break even at around $80 per barrel. If this remains consistent, expect investment in Canadian oil to dry up and a greater reliance on cheaper sources. (And you know where they are.)

 

In Toronto, it has dropped to about US$3.92 per gallon, which is the lowest it's been in a couple of years. In the summer, it peaked at around US$4.73 per gallon. (Toronto prices are pretty close to Canada's national average.)

 

Geez, these central bankers just can't catch a break...
Oil Slide Puts Central Bankers Over Deflationary Barrel

And to Putin, a big
Aww...he loses his best friend
Come on, man...admit you fucked up

IMHO...as with anything...there will be bad things with this, there will be good things.
And the world keeps turning...

 

Honestly, though, lower demand is an issue tied into lower prices, not just oversupply. If demand is low, that's an indicator of slow growth, recessions, or other issues. Deflation is a real risk. It's been a risk for a while now.

 

Actually, I remember when oil was only 50/barrel...back in 2005...it wasn't that long ago.

And gold had climbed to a "high" of $900 in 2008

Commodities have been on a bubble for a long time.
I have no sympathy. They're just going to have to go back to a reasonable budget.



Besides, it's not the US and Canada or the Saudis that are going to hurt.
It's Russia, Venezula and some less established Middle Eastern nations.

Right now, we're just seeing the panic people in action.
You want to see what the attitude should be, watch Warren Buffett. (his moves show you what the real deal is)

 

You mean automobiles and renewable energy?

 

No, I mean the energy panic currently ongoing over 2 days.
Buffett is fairly steady and casual, so no reason to go crazy.
He just keeps sucking up the money everyone else is stupid to drop.

But, he wouldn't be into any cutting edge tech...it's not his thing. (avoids it like the plague)

However, we're getting closer and faster towards alternative autos and renewables than we've ever have before.
And they've become "doable" in the cost and volume context.

It will be at least another decade before there is substantial conversion.

But, if a lot of oil vendors go under or are hurt due to the price break...then that will give less to resist alternatives.

 

Well, he's bought America's fifth largest auto retailer (with plans on adding more through consolidation) and is dropping $30 billion in solar and wind. It's gotta account for something.

 

Well, the first is not tech...just sales.
And it's a large scale established chain...which obviously, they're going to be expanding. - Link
(hmm...I wonder if his dealerships will offer special plans/rates with Geico, another BH company)

And a good summary on the energy angle from the same site. - Link
I think it's an influence of the newer people coming into the leadership lately...and they are starting to try to be Berkshire Hathaway without Warren Buffett.
He's always evaded tech before...so the last couple I've seen some changes.

Still, he's buying while everyone else is crying...which makes my point about his attitude.
I'll worry when he worries.

 

I meant the auto retail part as more of a general feel for the economy. (Though renewable energy is a part of that too.) "Berkshire Hathaway Automotive" wouldn't be made a thing unless they thought the U.S. economy was set to move a lot of cars.

 

This is interesting...and I wish we could get more extensive data. (globally too...)
Secret Job-Market Slack Complicates Fed Rate Decision

There are a lot of factors as to what makes a "good job" and its appropriate fit for individuals.

IMHO, while it is important that the powers that be take this into account...where do we stop??
There is so much that come into play...and it's ambiguous...and much is on the ambition/anxiety level of the employee themselves.

Just because a person has a degree...doesn't mean they are or are not qualified for a particular position.
It could be their communication skills...quality of work...job history and consistency...and so on.

There's only so much the government or entities can control.

Frankly, I think the Fed should get off zero, because it becomes a crutch...expected, (biz wants it like sugar)
there's not as much to affect the market, not as much leverage
and it would be a good sign that we're getting out of the duldrums...improve morale and perspective of stability.

If they're going to judge by education vs. wage...or minimal hours...
Why don't they judge by benefits
or overlapping roles (wearing multiple "hats")
maximum hours...overworking or unusual shifts
large relocations
taking jobs outside of your normal role
take a position beyond the typical eduction level. (this happens to me all the time...or even all the above)

and so on...all these factor into whether the companies are hiring or not...or you're not in your "appropriate" position.
How many companies out there are not hiring because they know they can get away with pushing their existing employees even more???

You should adjust the rate for what it is...and what the economy as a whole is.
The job factor is another item all-together.

 

Quite frankly, I say a pox on ALL the Houses.
Dems, GOP, SCOTUS, Corporations and Media.

They are forgetting one thing in all this...the citizens...the people.
They don't tell us what they are going to do.
They don't consider the impact to us.
They only cater to THEIR bottom line.

Now I'm not a friggin' communist/marxist/French Revolutionary.
But, everyone needs to remember who's the client here.
Who should you serve?

The stats...they're getting better, but that's not because anyone is doing anything for the people.
They're just going through the paces.
It truly is "trickle" down.
Drip by drip.

But it's leaving a yellow stain.
Stop pissin' on us.