How do you lose a plane?

redravin · Mar 18, 2014

Occam's razor, thank you @DamnitAll.
That makes sense and avoids much of the speculation is needed to make all the other possibilities work.

rogue49 · Mar 18, 2014

Then again, this may be turning into a "James Bond villain" scenario...
Planes swapped in mid-air??

Fangirl · Mar 18, 2014

Read a few comments on that article that poke a million holes in it. The two that seemed plausible straight off that I can remember, were there were multiple turns (not one, as the ex-pilot reasoned) made after communication broke down, and a fire means alarms going off. Very unlikely the pilot had a fire situation and didn't know it.
PS I liked this article until I read several well-reasoned-sounding comments, which underscored to me how little I know about avionics.
I'm guessing the plane crashed in the ocean and debris will wash up on shore over time. That seems to be all we can do anyway--guess.

Charlatan · Mar 19, 2014

An interesting article about what the search for the missing plane tells us about security in South East Asia.

tl;dr -- things are a mess

LINK

What the search for Flight MH370 tells us about national security in Asia

BY JESSICA TRISKO DARDEN

March 18 at 4:05 pm

This handout photo taken on March 17, 2014 by the Royal Malaysian Navy and received on March 18, 2014 shows a Royal Malaysian Navy ship KD Selangor departing to aid in the search and rescue efforts for the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 plane over the Southern Corridor. An investigation into the pilots of missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370 intensified on March 17 after officials confirmed that the last words spoken from the cockpit came after a key signalling system was manually disabled. (AFP Photo/Royal Malaysian Navy)
The following is a guest post from Jessica Trisko Darden, a political scientist at the School of International Service at American University who studies local and international conflict dynamics in Asia.
*****
Almost two weeks into the search for the missing Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370, little is understood about the whereabouts of the plane or its ability to apparently fly unseen for several hours before vanishing altogether. What initially appeared to be an unexpected air disaster has become a window into the limited capacity of the governments in the region to monitor and control their territory. The multinational search effort, now involving 25 countries, has provided significant insight into the international relations of the Asia-Pacific region and illustrated the limited potential for regional cooperation.
Apparently all an aircraft needs to do to avoid detection in this contested region is to stop announcing its presence (note to China: stop investing in stealth). While not quite as shocking as the ability of Mathias Rust to land a plane in Red Square during the Cold War, the disappearance of MH370 has flagged several questions relating to the maritime capabilities and military preparedness of Malaysia and neighboring states.Reports suggest that some of the countries that MH370 may have flown over regularly disable their military radar at night or in the absence of a clear external threat to reduce costs. This is hardly a region on a war footing.
Based on the little that is known about the last recorded location of flight MH370, international search operations have been conducted over land, in the South China Sea, the Strait of Malacca, the Andaman Sea and the Indian Ocean. Both the South China Sea and the Malacca Strait are politically sensitive areas that have been identified as possible flashpoints for future conflict between China and the United States’s allies in Southeast Asia. Flight MH370 demonstrates that competing territorial claims in these areas are not backed up by the ability to exercise control of these waters effectively, even by China. China has done little to take the lead in the search efforts in spite of the fact that the flight was intended for Beijing and two thirds of the missing are Chinese nationals. Instead, the United States acted unilaterally to expand the search area to the Indian Ocean by deploying the USS Kidd from its position in the South China Sea, again demonstrating America’s maritime dominance.
While the countries of the region lack the ability to effectively monitor their airspace and maritime borders, they clearly have the capacity to blame one another. Political haranguing has been an evident part of the Malaysian-led search process. Both China and Vietnam repeatedly expressed frustration with Malaysia for providing contradictory details that hampered their ability to search for wreckage. Vietnam temporarily downgraded its search in the absence of credible information beforeending it following word that Malaysia had suspended its search in the same area. Relations between Malaysia and China have been strained by an inability to locate the153 Chinese citizens on board the flight and Malaysia Airlines’ handling of the passengers’ families.
Intelligence sharing related to the search has also been riddled with problems. Multiple accusations of poor information sharing and the rejection of further assistance have been levied against the Malaysian government. These problems were starkly illustrated by initial confusion regarding the identity of the two Iranian passengers using stolen European passports. Although Malaysia amended its 2008 Anti-Trafficking in Persons Act to broaden the definition of trafficking, its enforcement remains weak and it has not been keen to share information that shows its weak commitment to stopping illicit flows of people. In the 2013 Trafficking in Persons report, the State Department designated Malaysia as on par with countries like Afghanistan and Mali. The fact that terrorists have used similar passport schemes in the past has not gone unobserved.
Whether the search for MH370 will have a political impact within Malaysia remains unclear. The mayhem associated with Malaysian government media briefings on the search’s developments have led to rare criticism of a regime that has been in power for four decades. Furthermore, the souring of relations with China may reinforce the shift in the ethnic Chinese electorate in Malaysia away from the ruling party that was evident in the last two general elections.
If the search continues for much longer, both the economic and political costs will continue to escalate for the countries involved. Discontent with Prime Minister Najib Razak’s handling of the issue may very well weaken an already challenged Malaysian leadership. Outside of Malaysia, China’s inability to protect its citizens, let alone find them, has garnered its share of intereston Weibo and in the media. The questions raised by the search for MH370 have exposed weaknesses in security that many thought unimaginable. For non-democratic regimes that rely on a reputation for competence and control to stay in power, the absence of either in this case must be far more disturbing than a missing plane.
Click to expand...

redravin · Mar 19, 2014

Fangirl said: ↑

Read a few comments on that article that poke a million holes in it. The two that seemed plausible straight off that I can remember, were there were multiple turns (not one, as the ex-pilot reasoned) made after communication broke down, and a fire means alarms going off. Very unlikely the pilot had a fire situation and didn't know it.
PS I liked this article until I read several well-reasoned-sounding comments, which underscored to me how little I know about avionics.
I'm guessing the plane crashed in the ocean and debris will wash up on shore over time. That seems to be all we can do anyway--guess.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I read a couple of articles too.
The one in Slate laid it out pretty clearly.
I guess I was looking for something that made some kind of sense out of the whole thing and didn't turn the crew into a bunch of bad guys for a change.
Would have been nice.
So I guess we continue with the mystery.

genuinemommy · Mar 19, 2014

Thought this was a good read on the topic.
A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

My biggest question... wasn't there some passenger on that plane with a cell phone? Can't we just track one of those?

Borla · Mar 19, 2014

genuinemommy said: ↑

Thought this was a good read on the topic.
A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

My biggest question... wasn't there some passenger on that plane with a cell phone? Can't we just track one of those?
Click to expand...

There are several articles around debunking that linked theory. It made sense to me too before I read them though.

Standard cell phones can't be tracked when they aren't in range of a cell tower. Signal is spotty at best from a plane when it is flying too, due to the frequency you are handed off from one tower to the next. Obviously there are no towers over ocean. I'm thinking the coverage in many areas of that part of the world is sporadic at best as well.

Borla · Mar 19, 2014

genuinemommy said: ↑

Thought this was a good read on the topic.
A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

My biggest question... wasn't there some passenger on that plane with a cell phone? Can't we just track one of those?
Click to expand...

Standard cell phones can't be tracked when they aren't in range of a cell tower.

ralphie250 · Mar 19, 2014

I herd this morning that it was spotted flying low over an island at the time of the disappearance.

Borla · Mar 19, 2014

ralphie250 said: ↑

I herd this morning that it was spotted flying low over an island at the time of the disappearance.
Click to expand...

I believe that pic was proven to be a hoax if it is the one I saw last night.

Fremen · Mar 19, 2014

MSD · Mar 19, 2014

Borla said: ↑

I'm thinking the coverage in many areas of that part of the world is sporadic at best as well.
Click to expand...

I'm digressing here, but I've heard from several people that you get amazing cell reception in a lot of areas of Southeast Asia (a few people mentioned Vietnam in particular) because people don't bitch and moan about cell phone towers ruining the landscape.

Charlatan · Mar 26, 2014

On the ground, you get great coverage... usually 4G.

I have full coverage in the subway as well.

That said, there are limits. If you are over the ocean or at 33,000 feet, you simply aren't going to reach a cell tower.
--- merged: Mar 19, 2014 at 6:51 PM ---

ralphie250 said: ↑

I herd this morning that it was spotted flying low over an island at the time of the disappearance.
Click to expand...

Labelled as a hoax.

Borla · Mar 19, 2014

MSD said: ↑

I'm digressing here, but I've heard from several people that you get amazing cell reception in a lot of areas of Southeast Asia (a few people mentioned Vietnam in particular) because people don't bitch and moan about cell phone towers ruining the landscape.
Click to expand...

I am guessing in urban areas that is probably true. Maybe in other areas too, my comment was admittedly a guess. But it would have to be pretty consistent coverage to allow the type of tracking some are suggesting.

redravin · Mar 19, 2014

Some interesting theories on why no one made any calls.
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Why Cell-Phone Calls Weren’t Made - TIME

One theory is that a deranged pilot depressurized the aircraft, causing oxygen deprivation that knocked the passengers out in a matter of minutes. Others cite the plane’s altitude for the dearth of calls, and note that some of the calls made on 9/11 came from radiotelephones no longer in use.
But as anyone whose dinner, movie or recital has been interrupted by cell-phone calls can attest, there must be a way to thwart such calls. All you have to do is visit PhoneJammer.com to see a variety of such portable devices on offer.
Click to expand...

ASU2003 · Mar 20, 2014

Maybe North Korea needed a new plane, cheap. Just pay off a few pilots and promise them women and retirement...

Borla · Mar 20, 2014

The Australians are saying they found something noteworthy on the speculated southern route. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of it.

Taliesin · Mar 20, 2014

Borla said: ↑

The Australians are saying they found something noteworthy on the speculated southern route. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of it.
Click to expand...

I just came here to report that.

Malaysia Airlines MH370: RAAF Orions en route to possible debris in Indian Ocean - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Australian search planes have been diverted to find two objects in the southern Indian Ocean "possibly related" to the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) says it has received an expert assessment of commercial satellite imagery of objects it suspects may be debris from the flight.AMSA spokesman John Young says the images indicate that one of the objects measures around 24 metres in length.
Click to expand...

Look how far South it is

Charlatan · Mar 20, 2014

There are also US vessels in the area about to join the search.

RedSneaker · Mar 20, 2014

I'm up and watching the news about it. I guess we'll know something by the time we're up in the morning.

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How do you lose a plane?

redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

Fangirl Very Tilted

Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

redravin Cynical Optimist Donor

genuinemommy Moderator Staff Member

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ralphie250 Fully Erect

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Fremen Allright, who stole my mustache?

MSD Very Tilted

Charlatan sous les pavés, la plage

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How do you lose a plane?

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genuinemommy Moderator Staff Member

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ralphie250 Fully Erect

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Fremen Allright, who stole my mustache?

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