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Politics Obama - Actually doing a good job?

Discussion in 'Tilted Philosophy, Politics, and Economics' started by rogue49, Mar 10, 2012.

  1. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    The U.S. doesn't actually need to lead global economic growth (thank goodness). That is a myth. It's a developed economy, where growth factors are much different than in developing economies. I imagine most economists would agree that economies such as BRIC are more important in terms of growth. This is where much of America's growth comes from, actually. All economies are interlinked. The reason why America isn't doing so hot isn't purely because of what America is doing or not doing. If China and India, for example, never return to their former growth, I don't think America can return to its former growth either. Also consider the European Union, which is an economy roughly the same size as the American economy. If it continues to roil, you can be sure it will hinder the U.S. economy as well.

    Think of it this way: The American economy is by far the largest single economy in the world. However, it currently accounts for maybe 20% of the global economy. I don't know about you, but when looking at the whole, it makes more sense to look at where the best leverage lies, rather than looking for the biggest guy out there just for being the biggest guy. With the realities of the global economy, it's not so much about individual economies as it is about economic groups and trade regions. Between the European Union and BRIC alone, you're looking at two economic groups—on one hand, one is just as large as the American economy, and on the other, one is capable of astoundingly higher economic growth.

    This view of America as stalwart and intrepid leader of the global economy is quaint. I'm sure it motivates many Americans, but it's rife with idealism. It's likely part in parcel with the myth of American exceptionalism, that tired and tedious concept. However, it's a view that I'm sure was true maybe back on the '90s. Too much has changed since then, and Americans tend to be myopic when it comes to change.

    So back to what I said: Everyone is underperforming, but the U.S. is performing better than most. This is a good thing. Let's go with it and look to others in terms of examining how the global economy can get back on track, because to be honest, there isn't a heck of a lot more the U.S. can do when you drill down into the numbers.

    And the bottom line is, growth expectations point to the European Union and China consisting of a much greater share (each) of the global economy than the U.S. economy. Much of this is because the U.S. doesn't have the same opportunities for growth. Much of that lies in the fact that it's such a developed economy already. It's an economy that people should merely hope remains stable. That's the strength factor of the U.S. at this point. Stability of an economy that size and development is key.
     
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2013
  2. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    I am not going really debate this question. But if 20% of the whole is under-performing it is very difficult for the remaining 80% to make up for it. In addition when we measure the 20% it does not take into consideration how the 20% benefits the remaining 80% - there is a synergy affect. For example, a percentage of China's economic activity is directly related to US consumer spending. So, the US is 20% of the world economy in terms of GDP, not in terms of global economic impact.

    I do concede that in general high performing economies can compensate for under performing economies.
    --- merged: Aug 30, 2013 at 1:00 PM ---
    Outside of your statement being true or not - the logic is flawed. The lack of a study says something is not true????

    My understanding (and this could be part of the problem because many share my understanding) is that part-time employees need not be covered by an employer plan under Obamacare. And further, an employer is under no obligation to offer coverage for a family only the employee - meaning that if costs increase, saving can be realized by dropping family coverage. Again, uncertainty! That is the point, that is the real problem.


    Is this the best most efficient way?

    Isn't single payer the real objective? Why do we have to go through all this chaos!
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 6, 2013
  3. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    I appreciate that you are admitting that you really dont understand the ACA but it is unfortunate that you are willing to jump to conclusions and make baseless claims based on that lack of understanding and even before the law is fully implemented.
     
  4. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    I've acknowledged this in my post. My point is that the global economy in purely growth terms will rely mostly on economic growth outside of the U.S.

    The role of the U.S. economy in the past was largely growth-related, but I think this began to wane in the late '90s. Now, the American economy is important in terms of its stability and R&D, because A) a lot of foreign money is used to invest in it, B) it's a largely consumer economy of imported goods, and C) the growth that is occurring in the U.S. is in large part service and technology based, which is crucial to the economic growth of developing economies.

    While it looks like the U.S. can never hope to match the economic growth of China, both countries need each other for obvious reasons. Trade between Canada and China is similar. Both the U.S. and Canada offer exports to China such as resources (metals, especially), education, medical technology, computer technology, etc. As advanced developed economies, Canada and the U.S. have and can produce the things that China desperately needs for their astounding growth. As an emerging economy, China is modernizing and has a growing middle class. This will only increase the demand for the goods and services that we can provide them. In turn, they also produce much for us due mainly to their still-cheap labour. They make a lot of consumer goods that can be made easily, unlike the high-tech goods that North America produces. Though even that is changing.

    I tend to take a realist view of the global economy. I can't admit to any one actor on the stage being the player of paramount importance. It doesn't make any sense to think that way, because without the rest of the cast, the show is going to bomb. The way this show works is with an ensemble cast, as much as the U.S. cannot shake its prima donna persona.
     
  5. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    Dude, the administration is changing the rules almost every day. The IRS is making administrative decisions almost every day. Exceptions are being granted almost every day. companies are interpreting the rules and regs every day. Insurance companies are making decisions about involvement in the exchanges and what and where they will offer coverage every day - so if you want to pretend there is clarity have fun with that fantasy.

    Part-time workers need not be covered under an employer plan. As it stands to day a company can have 1 full-time employee and thousands of part-time employees and they only have to cover one employee. And they do not have to extend spousal or family coverage if that coverage is otherwise available. and they do not need to subsidize it!
     
  6. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Ace...we're still back to you mischaracterizing the ACA on numerous occasions (see your recent defense of "death panels" as just one example) either through ignorance or ideology...not to mention your unwillingness to even acknowledge the fact that tens of millions of Americans, with or without insurance, have already benefited or the fact that in most of the Exchanges that have posted their rates, most uninsured will have access, not only to greater competition in selecting an insurance provider, but lower premiums than presently available.

    I have acknowledged that the law is complex and will requiring tweeking as in the case of most major legislation that so significantly change the status quo. You, on the other hand, have written it off even before it has been fully implemented and given a chance to succeed (with the above suggested need for tweeking).
     
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2013
  7. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    It would be nice.

    Here is the question. To what degree does Canadian economic growth, as measured by Canadian GDP, depend on US economic activity, i.e. strong US consumer consumption or increases in capital goods consumption, or industrial demand of some specific natural resources? Canada to a large degree depends on export activity - seems to me China and the US are the two key players in this regard. then if we ask the same question regarding China then how do you measure that secondary impact on Canada? And so it goes.

    Economic potential? Economic growth in percentage terms? Economic growth in absolute terms? There are different ways of looking at this and they can lead to different conclusions.


    As illustrated above I look at the important direction as other nations exporting their goods and services to the US. I doubt I will live to see the day when the US has a trade surplus - or net exports to other nations.
    --- merged: Sep 2, 2013 at 12:38 PM ---
    If there are inaccurate characterizations - who needs to get them fixed? Why let confusion persist? this legislation was a mess form the beginning, the people who voted for it and the President did not understand it and I would argue still don't. Many of the things Obama promised about the legislation are not even close to being true. Yes, 26 year-old adults can stay on their parents policies, and a few won't be impacted by life-time caps or preexisting conditions, etc. but at what cost?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 9, 2013
  8. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Nearly 15 millions young adults are now on their parents health plan as a result of the ACA.....not a small number, ace.

    Currently there are between 80-100 million Americans with pre-existing conditions....again, not a small number....and in order to cover these people, the risk needs to be spread (simple risk managment), thus the individual mandate requiring healthy people to buy insurance.

    Over 6 million seniors saved over $7 billion on prescriptions as a result of the ACA closing the medicare donut hole - not a small number, ace

    Recent Rand study that supports a recent CBO study:
     
  9. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    Canada's top two export partners are America and China, 74.5% and 4.3% of exports, respectively. It's no secret that the Canadian economy depends largely on the American economy; it's been like that for decades. However, you'd have to have your head in the sand not to realize that the largest economic growth (both in percentage and absolute terms) will come from China. That 4.3% proportion of Canada's overall exportation to China? Expect that figure to climb steadily over the next couple of decades at least. The projections of the Chinese economy are expected to see it surpass the overall size of the American economy, probably within a matter of a couple of decades. There are already signs of China competing aggressively with the U.S. for Canadian goods. If you are at all interested in the well-being of the American economy, you may be interested in looking into the trend.

    In short: The Chinese economy returning to its growth potential will likely be a bigger boon to the Canadian economy (growth-wise) than anything the American economy could do. Prime Minister Harper, as much as I like to complain about him, has spent a lot of time trying to open up trade between Canada and China, and there's reason for that. One of them is that he's not stupid. He's often the smartest person in the room.

    Both.

    The U.S. economy needs to focus on technology and services (including education) for export. I think that's where the greatest growth potential lies.
     
  10. ASU2003

    ASU2003 Very Tilted

    Location:
    Where ever I roam
    I don't know exactly how it works, but it looks like there is a mistake in how the part-time worker health insurance is covered.

    I think it should be:
    40 hours = 100%
    35 hours = 87.5%
    30 hours = 75%
    20 hours = 50%

    And if they have two or three jobs, than the companies get to share how much they contribute.
     
  11. Aceventura

    Aceventura Slightly Tilted

    Location:
    North Carolina
    How many would have had coverage anyway? How many have other options available? Many in this category have parents who have "Cadillac" plans, what is going to happen to these plans in the next 12 months?

    I believe there are better market based approaches to addressing this issue and I believe true single payer would be a better way to address this issue. In the Obamacare system we are going to end up with an adverse selection situation that will cause private market and exchange plan costs to skyrocket, while many healthy people will simply pay relatively small penalties - knowing catastrophic care will still be available if they need it.

    Assuming you don't support real free market reform, why don't you support true single payer? why do you support this hybrid Obamacare mess rather than advocating for something that will actually work?
    --- merged: Sep 3, 2013 4:08 PM ---
    I do not dispute the potential with China. I also understand that China is not an open market. So, based on your point of view, I have my head in the sand. China's market has been around for a long, long time - I believe change is occurring (the market is opening), but at a slow pace and this change can easily start going in the opposite direction.. I know my statement is subjective, I am not going to track down hard numbers at this time.

    I have been hearing about the potential of the China market since the Nixon administration. Perhaps some day we will have a real trade agreement that minimizes China stealing intellectual property and excessive tariffs on goods being imported into China.

    But, of course I have my head in the sand...nothing to really think about. Why not put all your money into a Canadian company that is going to tap into that China market - think you may want to ask some questions first about that China potential?
    --- merged: Sep 3, 2013 4:13 PM ---
    I think a person's healthcare coverage has nothing to do with their employer. People should be fully paid for their work and buy their own insurance or we should have a single payer (i.e. - medicare for all) system.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 10, 2013
  12. Baraka_Guru

    Baraka_Guru Möderätor Staff Member

    Location:
    Toronto
    We can simply look at the basics. You say that China isn't an open market, but as the world's second largest importer and with a goal of becoming a fully developed nation before 2050, I'd say they're open enough—I'd say the pace is quick enough. The danger isn't in going too slowly; the danger is in going too fast.

    And a rare catastrophic event would have to happen for China to change to the opposite direction. Despite China's communist political orientation, the economy is currently run under capitalism, and this is a trend that's been happening for a while now. Long gone are the days of Mao.

    I think it will become increasingly difficult for China to operate in this manner as they realize their long-term need sustainable growth. But let's not forget America's long history of unethical/nanny-state trade practices, many of which continue to this day.

    Why do you believe this? Do you disagree that China is a high-growth economy?

    Like what? I'm not sure what you're getting at.
     
  13. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    There you go again, Ace. Being disingenuous and minimizing the benefits of the ACA to millions of Americans even before being fully implemented...attempting to rationalize your opposition, not based on the clear merits to date that you refuse to acknowledge but by pointing to a single payer system despite the fact that a single payer system was not politically feasible by any measure. It would certainly have no support of Republican members of Congress who view single payer as socialism.

    And again, you are making baseless assumptions of the Insurance Exchanges and demonstrating your lack of understanding of how they will work (with a short open enrollment period each year, thus the notion that uninsured can simply pay a fine and then signup for insurance when they face a need for catastrophic care) along with data coming in from many states that the competition through the Exchanges will offer cheaper options than currently available to most uninsured, along with subsidies to nearly half of those uninsured.

    In the long run, I hope we move to a single payer system. In the short term, an alternative to the status quo that has been in place for 50+ years was needed and the ACA is far better than anything proposed by Republicans when they had the opportunity.

    It will provide affordable insurance to most (but not all) of the 40+ million of uninsured through greater competition combined with subsidies, numerous new consumer protections for the majority of Americans in employer-based plans, and significant investments in health care technology to make the system more productive.
    --- merged: Sep 3, 2013 at 4:41 PM ---
    Please also explain how your market based approaches would work with your support for a single payer system.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 10, 2013
  14. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Paul Krugman explains how the ACA will result in real market competition and drive down the cost of premiums.

    Sometimes it does take a government to make a market.
     
    • Like Like x 3
  15. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    And they need to make it more national oriented...right now, many insurances are exclusive to just the state they are in.
    It needs to be intrastate...make the rules more consistent. The ACA is a step in the right direction.

    It's not going to normalized until it is a product and service that can be the same whether you are Washington...or Georgia.
    Just like any other product and service...if it's distribution allows for it.

    I think the same can be said for many other "old-school" products & services...such as Alcohol.
    We need to get out of the previous century mindset and monopolies.

    I was hoping the Obama administration would be able to push this further.
    But we're stuck with many obsolete laws while the Congress is in it's current circle-jerk dynamic.
     
  16. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    A step in the right direction....from a new Robert Wood Johnson Foundation report:
    The advances in coverage come as a result of simplifying the enrollment process, including several provisions in the ACA. The law has established a single streamlined application, decreased the paperwork burden, and awarded grants to community organizations tasked with enrolling eligible populations in the safety net programs.
     
  17. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    Obama pushes FCC for a "stay out of jail card" for unlocking your cell phone

     
    • Like Like x 1
  18. rogue49

    rogue49 Tech Kung Fu Artist Staff Member

    Location:
    Baltimore/DC
    Oh, God forbid if we should control what we own...
     
  19. redux

    redux Very Tilted

    Location:
    Foggy Bottom
    In another small but significant action by the Obama administration, home health care workers will no longer be treated as babysitters and will be subject to federal minimum wage and overtime requirements.

     
  20. Tully Mars

    Tully Mars Very Tilted

    Location:
    Yucatan, Mexico
    I had no idea this was the case. You know much like wanting my food server/handler to have decent access to health care I prefer the person entering my mother home to help her with personal tasks to be paid a living wage.