Korean Peninsula: Likelihood of conflict?

Speaking pragmatically, it's almost impossible to get politicians to spend money in these amounts on these sorts of things without the excuse of war. It's not that they can't. They just don't.

 

thing is that it's the south that worries more about the ongoing arrangement than anyone else, as i understand it, primarily because an implosion of the north would equal a migration of people south. and that they do not want. so a lot of this dick-waving has to be balanced against this underlying constraint...

 

It's not so much "war" being necessary as the availability of funds to design, build and test these things. During WWII, the US effectively became a state-capitalist system with very strict controls on earnings, taxes and production. Go try to buy a US-made 1942 model car by any manufacturer.

When I was a kid, we would send younger scouts to the Scout Leader to get a flagpole cover. Same thing.

War has directly resulted in some extremely beneficial things, like trauma centers. War, abhorrent as it may be, does actual produce some benefits to society at large in its aftermath. At least for the winning side.

 

Seriously. Take East Germany and West Germany and multiply that by a very large factor.

 

this speech is fabulous...

 

I love that film, especially that scene.

 

Well, for kids that have progeria, then yes, it does.

Drug originally developed for cancer proves effective for children with progeria

 

from the orson welles speech, a line i usually forget about:

governments don't think in terms of human beings. why should we?

 

In that case, it absolutely does. When compared to heart disease - which is a bigger killer in the US - cancer provides much more economic stimulus in terms of research and treatment.

 

This.

Even though East and West Germany were divided for half a century, there were many communication lines and a large informal economy between them. Culturally, there was a divide, but in terms of education and knowledge most East Germans weren't all too far behind those in the West.

North Korea vs South Korea, on the other hand, is completely different. Culturally they are leagues apart (in large part due to the Kims' personality cult), indoctrination and brainwashing is done in a much more rigorous manner, and the North Koreans have a fantastically narrow worldview. I know someone who went to North Korea and he was shocked at the level of belief they put into the government's propaganda and fairy tales. Of course, they were being monitored, but he left with an impression that they really believed those things.

Imagine millions of undereducated, indoctrinated, gullible people swarming your country as refugees post-conflict. If people thought the re-integration of the East Germans was complicated and tough, good luck to that scenario.

 

The initial 'war' might be over quickly, but what do you do about the aftermath? What if China gets involved? What if China just messes with our money/economy more?

I think there is quite a bit of Western propaganda as well when it comes to North Korea though and the conditions and lifestyle the people are living. While it isn't a perfect country by any means, they have done a hand full of things better than we have in the west.

 

No advertisements, cleaner air, clean cities, no obesity, no TV or Internet addiction...

The methods that were used to get those might be harsh, but effective.

 

No advertisements because it's a state-run economy. There were no advertisements in 1930's Soviet Union.
Cleaner air is possible due to the issues they have had with coal production, but that is the major electrical power production method in the country. Since they're digging up anthracite, that helps with the emissions.
Clean cities - there are lots of other clean cities on the planet. Chicago is a pretty clean city. So is Washington DC.
Obesity - you realize that they had a 3 year famine where 300,000 to 600,000 people died, right? That was just between 1997 and 1999, and Amnesty International said that about 67% of the country's kids have nutritional issues of one form or another. Amnesty International Report 2010: The State of the World's Human Rights | Amnesty International
When TV and internet are state-run, it's hard to form an addiction.

Oh, wait, I'm feeding the troll, aren't I?